[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151734
SWODY2
SPC AC 151733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
PNS 15 NNW MAI 10 ENE SSI ...CONT... 10 ENE MLB 25 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 40 S FMY
...CONT... 60 WSW COT COT 55 N VCT LCH 25 NW MCB JAN CBM GAD CAE 15
ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 65 W MLS
SHR 60 NW RIW 20 WNW IDA S80 35 WSW GEG SEA 35 NNW CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL....

AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/EASTERN U.S. IS EVIDENT IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH
BROAD UPPER TROUGH EVOLVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/MEXICAN PLATEAU AND
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.  UPPER TROUGH
IS COMPRISED OF SEVERAL BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS...MOST PROMINENT OF WHICH IS NOW PIVOTING EASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS FEATURE PHASES WITH AN IMPULSE IN
BELT OF STRONGER FLOW TO THE SOUTH...NOW DIGGING TOWARD
BAJA...MODELS INDICATE BROADER SCALE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHARPEN BY
12Z WEDNESDAY SOUTH/EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  ENTIRE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER
VIGOROUS COLD SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES.

IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF UPPER TROUGH...MID/HIGH-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/EASTERN GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME WILL SUPPORT WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING
OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  DIFFERENCES
EXIST AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS...AND THIS IS
CONTRIBUTING TO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
THREAT ACROSS FLORIDA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  CURRENTLY IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT SURFACE WAVES WILL REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...
COMBINATION OF MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND INTENSIFYING FLOW
FIELDS AT ALL LEVELS SUPPORTS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

...EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN/
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CONFINE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...THIS BOUNDARY
APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...BUT A GRADUAL SOUTHWARD SHIFT IS PROGGED THROUGH
THE DAY AS INITIAL WAVE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

GFS IS STRONGER/DEEPER WITH THIS WAVE AND...IF THIS SOLUTION COMES
CLOSER THAN NAM TO VERIFYING...HODOGRAPHS LIKELY WILL SUPPORT A MORE
PRONOUNCED RISK OF TORNADOES IN SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE TALLAHASSEE
AND JACKSONVILLE AREAS.  REGARDLESS...40-50 KT WESTERLY MEAN FLOW
REGIME WILL ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

RISK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SOUTH OF
FRONT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...IN
ASSOCIATION WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE.  NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SYSTEM...PERHAPS PRECEDED
BY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG.

...DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
BEFORE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS DEEPER INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THE BROWNSVILLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  ACTIVITY WILL BE BASED ABOVE DEEP FRONTAL
INVERSION LAYER...BUT...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL RATES... CAPE MAY
REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

..KERR.. 03/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.