[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150646
SWODY2
SPC AC 150645

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
PNS 15 NNW MAI 10 ENE SSI ...CONT... 10 ENE MLB 25 S SRQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N PBI 40 S FMY
...CONT... 20 NW DRT 25 WNW SAT 20 SW CLL LFK 25 NW MCB 30 WSW MEI
10 E CBM 15 ENE ANB 15 NE AGS 15 SSW CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR BIL 60 SSW
COD 55 WSW BPI 45 ENE OWY 35 NNE BNO 50 NNW DLS 15 NNW UIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SRN GA SWD ACROSS
NRN AND CENTRAL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES...MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...WITH THE 00Z NAM/GFS REMAINING THE
FASTEST...THEY AGREE THAT STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND
FROM SRN MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF TO FL. AT THE SURFACE...A BOUNDARY
INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM SRN GA SWWD TO SERN LA TO THE WRN GULF
BASIN AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE SEWD THIS PERIOD REACHING A CENTRAL
FL TO SRN GULF LINE BY 12Z THURSDAY.

IN THE WEST...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING SSEWD TOWARD
NRN BC...IS PROGGED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS WA/ORE TO THE NRN ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
SPREADING FROM THE NW-SE AS MID LEVEL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF AN 80+ KT NWLY MID LEVEL JET TRANSLATING FROM
WRN WA TO NRN UT.

...EXTREME SRN GA SWD ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL FL...
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM SWLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TO FL DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO
HEIGHT FALLS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS THE GULF AND GULF COAST STATES. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ENEWD OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF AND WAA ALONG A 35-50 KT SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO SRN AL/GA. 
ALTHOUGH THIS STRONG LLJ WILL MAINTAIN A HIGH THETAE AIR MASS ACROSS
FL ON WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THE FL
PENINSULA...MODEST LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS WITH UP TO 50 KT AT 850 MB AND UP
TO 70 KT AT 500 MB OVER SRN GA/FL...LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIKELY AS THE FRONT MOVES SEWD.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT...WHILE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

..PETERS.. 03/15/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.