[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141734
SWODY2
SPC AC 141733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 30 S LRD
...CONT... 45 ESE DUG 10 N SVC ONM 4CR LBB 50 SSE CDS ADM PGO MKL
CSV 10 W TYS 10 WSW GSP 20 SE CRE ...CONT... 15 NNW PBI 45 ENE FMY
25 S SRQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MODELS INDICATE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/
EASTERN U.S. WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. 
THIS WILL OCCUR DOWNSTREAM OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY DIGGING 
FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU.  AS POSITIVELY
TILTED FEATURE PIVOTS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NOW WEST OF BAJA...IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. 

MODELS SUGGEST LATTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND TEXAS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED ON SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ATOP AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE ALSO SIMILAR IN SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH...
EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WILL LIFT THROUGH BROADER
SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

...FLORIDA PENINSULA...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  AFTER INITIALLY COOLING/DRYING BOUNDARY
LAYER...FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT STILL COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  MOISTENING ON EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW...IN CONJUNCTION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.  THIS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...WHERE CONVERGENCE BECOMES LOCALLY ENHANCED...AS
SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT FAVORABLE SHEAR
BENEATH CONTINUING MODERATE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW SUPPORTS AT
LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGEST CELLS.

...GULF STATES...
WHILE SURFACE FRONT LIKELY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...MOISTURE ABOVE
FRONTAL INVERSION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. TUESDAY. 
AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES OUT OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...
ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  NORTHERN LIMIT TO ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. 

LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT A LIMITED HAIL
THREAT ACROSS GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
BETTER AND COULD CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG.  HOWEVER...VIGOROUS STORMS ROOTED IN/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER...IN
WARM SECTOR OF DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE...STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE.

...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE EAST OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. FORCING AHEAD OF SOUTHWARD SURGING COLD
FRONT...ENHANCED BY EVOLVING UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ACTIVITY.  MODELS SUGGEST MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT INSTABILITY LIKELY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST
SOME RISK OF HAIL/GUSTY WINDS NEAR STRONGER STORMS.

..KERR.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.