[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 140705
SWODY2
SPC AC 140704

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 AM CST MON MAR 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 S CRP 30 S LRD
...CONT... 40 W FHU 60 WNW SAD 60 ESE SOW ONM 45 N ROW 30 WNW LBB 60
WNW ABI 45 WSW BWD 40 W ACT 45 NNE TYR 40 WSW HOT 20 ENE LIT 45 S
MKL 20 S CHA 40 NNW AGS 30 SSW CRE ...CONT... 15 NNW PBI 45 ENE FMY
25 S SRQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
00Z GFS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 13/12Z ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO
THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AT THIS TIME PER WV IMAGERY.  THE GFS ALSO KEEPS THE CLOSED
LOW...NOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN BAJA...AS A SEPARATE FEATURE
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TROUGH.  THIS CLOSED
LOW IS PROGGED TO BE AN OPEN WAVE OVER SRN BAJA AT 12Z TUESDAY...AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO DE-AMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NEWD INTO AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...REACHING THE LOWER
TN VALLEY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.

...UPPER TX COAST EWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
A SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND E-W ACROSS THE GULF INTO DEEP
S TX AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND REDEVELOP NWD TOWARD THE GULF
COAST THROUGH THE DAY AS SSWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 40
KT OVER THE WRN GULF.  THIS LLJ EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NEWD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL/ERN GULF COAST STATES WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD. 
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS SPREADING ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN BAJA
TROUGH ACROSS TX AND THE GULF COAST STATES COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATION ALONG/N OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION.  AT THIS TIME...THE STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE
WARM SECTOR FROM MOVING INLAND.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE LOWER TN VALLEY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...A PORTION OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY MOVE INLAND ACROSS SERN LA TO THE WRN FL
PANHANDLE AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN THIS VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT
LIMITED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A GREATER SEVERE THREAT
AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INLAND...LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE BEING
ISSUED WITH THIS OUTLOOK.  A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST MAY REQUIRE
AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...IF LATER MODELS
INDICATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO MOVE INLAND LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

..PETERS.. 03/14/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.