[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121710
SWODY2
SPC AC 121709

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW BPT 30 N LFK
25 NNW TXK 25 NW LIT 35 NE DYR 45 SE BWG 10 NE HSS 30 N RDU 30 NNE
HSE ...CONT... 20 E CHS 30 NE MCN 35 SSW CSG 50 NNW CEW 30 S MOB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE FHU 35 N TUS
25 SW INW 35 NE GUP 25 S SAF 35 SE 4CR 20 ESE ELP.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN ON SUN. LARGE SCALE HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO
RISE OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE PERSISTENT LARGE SCALE
TROUGH BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TO CNTRL/WRN NOAM. WAVE TRAIN OF
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONSEQUENTLY
BEGIN TO TRACK FARTHER W...THROUGH THE HEART OF AMERICA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. LATEST COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OH VLY NOW SHOULD
EXTEND FROM NRN NC TO N TX 12Z SUN...NRN SC TO SCNTRL TX 00Z MON AND
CNTRL SC TO THE WRN GULF BASIN BY 12Z MON.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR POSSIBLE TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT.

...LWR MS VLY/DEEP S...
BOUNDARY LAYER RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE NWD
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY THROUGH SUN. FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE...HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A WSWLY COMPONENT...
ADVECTING A STOUT EML /OBSERVED IN SRN PLAINS 12Z SOUNDINGS/ ATOP
THIS MOISTURE. THUS...DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
CAPPED TO SURFACE BASED PARCELS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT.

MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE FOR CONVECTION/TSTMS TO INCREASE LATE
AFTERNOON/NIGHT ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE LWR MS VLY NEWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP S.  ACTIVITY WILL BE DEVELOPING IN A ZONE
OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF AN OH VLY MID-LEVEL JET. 
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT IN THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER AND
SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO ISOLD NEAR-SEVERE
HAILSTONES IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY.. 03/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.