[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120649
SWODY2
SPC AC 120648

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 AM CST SAT MAR 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW GLS 50 NNE CLL
45 SSE PRX 40 S HOT 30 NE UOX 50 S BNA 15 NNE TYS 30 N RDU 30 NNE
HSE ...CONT... 15 SE CHS 50 ESE MCN 25 SW ABY 15 SW AQQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY STRONG POLAR VORTEX...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SRN
HUDSON BAY/NRN ONTARIO...WILL RETROGRADE WSWWD THE NEXT TWO DAYS
REACHING MANITOBA BY 12Z MONDAY.  ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE U.S. ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SWLY FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY.  THIS CHANGE IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN U.S. IS PROGGED TO OCCUR AS HEIGHTS FALL
OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
MOVING SSEWD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN ERN PACIFIC RIDGE. SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING EWD OVER NRN MEXICO DURING THE DAY 1 PERIOD WILL MOVE
INTO TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO
CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.


AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NC WSWWD TO
NRN TX AT 12Z SUNDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY SUNDAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN/NRN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EWD
INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.

...LA/SRN AR EWD TO AL...
SLY SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY 2
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE QUALITY OF THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BE MODEST
GIVEN WSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE ADVECTING DRIER AIR
IN FROM THE WEST.  IN ADDITION...AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL ALSO
SPREAD EWD ON SUNDAY CONTINUING TO EFFECTIVELY CAP THE WARM SECTOR
ENVIRONMENT.  ALTHOUGH MODELS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVER SERN TX TO SRN MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE LACK OF
STRONGER UPPER FORCING AND THE CAP SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SURFACE BASED STORMS.  MODELS DO...HOWEVER...INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM MAINLY LA ENEWD TO GA/
CAROLINAS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN A ZONE OF DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL WAA
AND INCREASING UVVS IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A WLY MID LEVEL JET
EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC COAST.  ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND CLOUD BEARING SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL.

..PETERS.. 03/12/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.