[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 050533
SWODY2
SPC AC 050532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 55 SE EED
50 SW GCN 55 SSE PGA 15 NNW ABQ 50 NE CVS 25 S LTS 30 NNW MWL 40 S
SEP 30 W AUS 35 W NIR 30 WNW MFE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY TWO
PERIOD WITH AMPLIFICATION OF NRN STREAM OWING TO STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES.
PRIMARY FEATURE IN SRN STREAM IS MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE/DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO N-CNTRL CONUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE NRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH SWRN
U.S. DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN
TX LATE IN THE PERIOD.

...SRN NM INTO WRN/SWRN TX...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF AZ/NM WITHIN DIVERGENT NERN QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL
LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...FUELED BY
COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT
WEAK INSTABILITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX EJECTING FROM UPPER LOW INTO SRN NM
AND SWRN TX.

THIS ACTIVITY MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED AIR MASS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO...PRIOR TO SPREADING NEWD INTO
SRN NM AND THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TX. GIVEN ANTICIPATED STEEP
LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPES AOA 500 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-25 M/S...A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
TEND TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT OVER WRN AND W-CNTRL TX AS LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY WEAKEN WITH THE ONSET OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

..MEAD.. 03/05/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.