[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 041726
SWODY2
SPC AC 041725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW IPL 45 NE DAG
35 N LAS 45 S BCE 25 E FMN 25 NW PVW SEP 20 ESE TPL 60 NNE VCT 30
SSW PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE SAV 45 WSW AGS
10 SE CHA 55 NNW CSV 50 ENE LEX 15 N CRW 20 WSW CHO 10 ESE ORF.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
AN UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AND SLIDE
SEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS WITH THE ACTIVITY SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

NAM AND GFS MODEL FORECASTS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF NC AND SC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z IN SERN NC SHOW STRONG SPEED
SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 300 MB BUT WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 60 KT
WOULD RESULT IN FAST MOVING STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE BEST THREAT FOR WIND WOULD BE IN THE 20Z SAT TO 00Z SUN
TIMEFRAME AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PEAK IN THE AREA WITH THE
STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR (ERN SC AND SERN NC). ANY MARGINAL WIND
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS IN THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY OFFSHORE IN
THE 02Z TO 04Z SUN TIMEFRAME.

...WRN AND SRN TX...
AN UPPER-LOW ACROSS SRN CA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES WITH STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADING WRN AND SRN TX DURING THE
DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AS A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ADVECT 55 TO 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS NWWD INTO TX HILL COUNTRY AND
ACROSS SW TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A MORNING CAPPING INVERSION
SHOULD WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY LOW. HOWEVER...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN SW TX AND STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR IN SOUTH
TX MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS DECOUPLING
OCCURS...HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IN
THE 06Z TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.

...SRN AND CNTRL AZ...
THE UPPER-LOW OVER SRN CA WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO FAR NWRN MEXICO
DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. THIS WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE SWRN US SATURDAY. SFC HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE
MTNS WILL LIKELY INITIATE SCATTERED STORMS. DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK
WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE SMALL HAIL
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY
THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 03/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.