[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 040543
SWODY2
SPC AC 040542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE IPL 30 SW DAG
30 N LAS 30 SW CEZ 35 N 4CR 45 SSE LBB 15 S CLL 20 ESE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SAV 30 S AHN 30
SSW CSV LEX 15 N HTS 20 W SSU 25 SSW LYH 25 NNE RWI 25 N HSE.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY/NRN GULF OF CA AT 05/12Z IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY SWD OR SEWD THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH
SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCE EJECTING EWD FROM THIS FEATURE INTO TX. A
MORE ENERGETIC AND PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME WILL CONCURRENTLY PERSIST
FROM CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC.
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH
WILL TRANSLATE SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
AND SERN STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AT
05/12Z WILL DEVELOP SEWD TO THE NC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE
TRAILING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHES SEWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT. IN THE W...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ATTENDANT TO
MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER SRN AZ/NRN SONORA MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SWD. OVER TX...A WEAK WARM FRONT
/EFFECTIVELY DEMARKING NWWD RETURN OF SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
MASS/ WILL PERSIST FROM WRN TX SEWD INTO SERN TX.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY
OWING TO SWLY OR WLY TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE CNTRL CONUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT...COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND RESULTANT STEEP LAPSE RATES
OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW TSTMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...PRIOR TO MOVING/DEVELOPING SEWD ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THROUGH EVENING.

...TX...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WILL RETURN
NWWD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS
TO DRT BY AFTERNOON. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT RESULTING FROM PERSISTENT
SELY FLOW INTO HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX IN CONJUNCTION WITH
APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM NRN MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/SWRN
TX INTO S TX. APPEARS BEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE
OF MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL EXIST OVER SWRN TX INTO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU WHERE ERN EDGE OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTE TO COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY.

...SRN AZ...
POCKET OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS REGION ON
SATURDAY...EFFECTIVELY CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LARGE-SCALE FORCING E/NE OF UPPER LOW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOCALIZED OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INVOF ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN TSTM COVERAGE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW OF THE MOST
VIGOROUS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

..MEAD.. 03/04/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.