[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 031648
SWODY2
SPC AC 031647

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W PMD 30 NW SMX 30
WNW MRY 25 NNE SFO 30 NE SAC 20 SSE RNO 35 ESE U31 25 WNW MLF 30 S
BCE GCN 20 E IGM 60 E DAG 30 W PMD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW DAL 15 W MWL 65
NNE ABI 20 NE CDS 35 SSW GAG 25 ESE P28 20 N VIH 40 N SDF 55 WNW HTS
25 SSE HTS 30 NNE TRI 30 WNW HSS 30 NW HSV 40 WSW PBF 20 SW DAL.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MID MS VALLEY...
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY TO INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 F ACROSS ERN OK...SRN MO...AR...KY AND
TN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PARTIAL CLEARING AND SFC HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM
INITIATION BEGINNING IN KY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING WSWWD
INTO SRN MO...NRN AR AND POSSIBLY FAR ERN OK DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST
VERTICAL SHEAR EAST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IN
THE OZARKS. THIS DIFFERENCE IN LOCATION MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND VEERED WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT COULD
EXIST WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS IN THE EVENING
HOURS...A RAPID DECREASE IN CELL INTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR WITH ANY
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING BY MID EVENING.

...CA AND SW DESERT...
AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL DIG SSEWD AND CLOSE OFF OVER THE CA ON DAY 2.
COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL CREATE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8.0
C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL
FOR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY IN
PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 03/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.