[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 030617
SWODY2
SPC AC 030615

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST THU MAR 03 2005

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N DAG 20 N NID 45
SSE FAT 20 NW SAC 45 WSW MHS 60 SSW 4LW 20 ENE LOL 50 SSE EKO 35 WNW
U24 20 SW 4HV 70 WNW GUP 50 ENE BLH 50 NNE TRM 30 N DAG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW LBB 40 ESE CVS
40 WNW AMA 55 SSW LBL 30 N END 10 NW SGF 25 SW STL 15 WSW LUK 25 NNE
HTS 30 WNW BLF 40 SE TYS 25 ENE LGC 25 NNW MGM 35 ESE GWO 25 W ELD
15 WSW GGG 10 NE CLL 50 SE JCT 40 WSW ABI 35 SSW LBB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN RIDGE / ERN TROUGH CONFIGURATION ALOFT TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD. 
THREE MAIN SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE CONVECTIVE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FIRST...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE IN
THE WRN U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO
A CLOSED LOW AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS CA. THE SECOND...A WEAKER SRN
STREAM VORT MAX EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE RED RIVER OF TX / OK AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD...SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS ESEWD INTO THE GULF
COAST REGION IN CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  THE THIRD WILL BE A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SSEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN OK EWD ACROSS AR INTO THE TN VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS NRN /
CENTRAL TX...AND ALSO ACROSS THE OZARKS / MID MS AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS.  THOUGH THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
THE MORNING...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE
LIMITED /40S TO LOW 50S/ SURFACE DEWPOINTS.  IT APPEARS ATTM THAT
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING / SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF SRN STREAM VORT MAX
EXPECTED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MORNING SHOULD HINDER
ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT OVER TX.  HOWEVER...WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE -- PERHAPS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES --
MAY ALLOW A FEW ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM ERN OK EWD INTO KY /
TN DURING THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF APPROACHING NRN STREAM TROUGH. 
COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST
THAT HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER STORM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE CONDITIONAL 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.

...SIERRA / WRN GREAT BASIN REGION...
UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE MOVING SSEWD ACROSS CA / NV THIS
PERIOD...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED COOL AIR AT MID LEVELS. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A FEW
STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLY CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL. 
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED TO PRECLUDE STRONG / SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

..GOSS.. 03/03/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.