[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 021736
SWODY2
SPC AC 021735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CST WED MAR 02 2005

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE SJT 35 ESE HOB
35 ESE ROW 25 ENE ONM 10 WSW GUP 75 SE PGA 15 NE U17 45 SSW GJT 30
ESE GUC 45 ENE DHT 25 W CSM 35 SE FSI 40 NNE FTW 15 SSW DAL 30 NNE
ACT TPL 35 WSW TPL 30 NE JCT 10 SE SJT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE FSM 40 W TUL 35
SSW ICT 15 W HUT 15 N SLN 20 NE MHK 10 SW FLV 20 NNW SZL 15 WSW JEF
30 SE VIH 35 NNW POF POF 30 ENE ARG 30 SSW ARG 50 N LIT 25 NE FSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE 7R4 30 SSE BTR
10 E MSY 35 NNE BVE ...CONT... 40 S FMY 15 SSW MIA.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER AIR W/NWLY FLOW WILL AGAIN DOMINATE THE CONUS ALMOST FROM
COAST TO COAST. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND FROM
CNTRL CA COAST TO THE PACIFIC NW WHERE SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. FARTHER
EAST...PHASING BETWEEN FAST SRN STREAM AND SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
CROSSING TX TODAY WILL DRIVE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE
CYCLONE ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF TO THE FL KEYS. ELSEWHERE..A COUPLE OF
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD
BAND NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES...NOW MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...IS FCST BY LATEST GUIDANCE TO SPREAD FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA TO TX WHILE GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFYING AS IT APPROACHES
DOWNSTREAM ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. THE OTHER IMPULSE...NOW CRESTING
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER ALBERTA...IS FCST TO TRANSLATE SEWD WITH WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE MID/LWR MS VLY
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...NWRN TX...
NW FLOW DISTURBANCE SIMILAR TO LAST TWO WILL MOVE FROM FOUR CORNERS
AREA TO ERN NM/WRN TX PNHDL DURING THE PERIOD OF MAX HEATING AND
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT GENERALLY HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MEAGER IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FEATURE...LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS TO STRENGTHEN WHICH IN TURN WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES. FORCED ASCENT AND SOME MOISTENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OVER WEST TX
FROM EARLY EVENING ON. THIS PROCESS SHOULD FURTHER SPUR SCATTERED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION AFTER DARK. MUCAPE IN THE RANGE
OF 150-300 J/KG...AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...COULD RESULT IN A FEW STOUT /BETTER ORGANIZED/ UPDRAFTS WITH
ONE OR TWO HAIL EVENTS POSSIBLE.

...SERN KS TO OZARKS...
SIMILAR SCENARIO AND TIMING AS THE PROCESS MENTIONED ABOVE IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVER A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA FROM SERN KS TO
THE OZARKS OF MO/AR AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY. IF SUFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THIS IMPULSE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP IN AN AXIS OF WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS
SERN KS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH
THE SHORT WAVE MAY COMPENSATE FOR GENERALLY LIMITED MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN A FEW STRONG TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FAVOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF A COUPLE OF HAIL
STORMS.

..CARBIN.. 03/02/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.