[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 011733
SWODY2
SPC AC 011732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE EKO ENV 35 ESE
U24 45 NNW INW 45 NW PRC 35 SE LAS 50 NE TPH 20 SE EKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 45 E DRT 30
SSW JCT 35 SE SJT 50 WSW ABI 50 SSW CDS 15 WSW CSM 35 NW OKC 40 SSE
MKO 45 SW HOT ELD 20 E MLU 35 SSE JAN 20 SE LUL 20 N MOB 35 SSE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREDOMINATE OVER THE BULK OF THE
CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS DEEP UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. SRN STREAM WILL REMAIN STRONG FROM
THE SOUTHWEST/BAJA TO FL WHILE A SERIES OF MIDDLE STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST. ONE OF
THESE SHORT WAVES... EMERGING FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY...WILL
SPREAD ESEWD FROM ERN TX TO THE LWR MS VLY ON WEDNESDAY. A SRN
STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO SPREAD EAST FROM THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY
TO THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST...IN CONCERT WITH THE MIDDLE STREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

...TX TO LA GULF COAST...
LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUSTAIN AN
AREA OF TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TX DURING THE DAY. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ROOTED ABOVE A GENERALLY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
STORMS TO BECOME NEAR SURFACE-BASED OVER SCNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON
GIVEN SUFFICIENT HEATING/MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION/LIFT SPREAD EAST TOWARD
THE LWR MS VLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOMEWHAT WEAKER FORCING AND
LOW THROUGH MID LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM LEND
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE SRN STREAM IMPULSE
SUGGESTED BY GFS AND ENSEMBLE DATA COULD LEND SUPPORT TO AFTERNOON
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY
AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR THROUGH 300MB. IF THIS SCENARIO BECOMES
CLEARER...HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES WILL BE WARRANTED
ACROSS SCNTRL TX AND AN UPGRADE TO SLGT RISK IS POSSIBLE.

FARTHER EAST...MORNING MCS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESEWD TOWARD LA
WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE TX GULF COAST IN
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. PRESENCE OF COOL/STABLE
AIRMASS OVER INLAND AREAS OF LA IS EXPECTED TO RESTRICT SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAIL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
HIGHER THETA-E GULF AIRMASS MOVING INLAND ALONG/SOUTH OF A
GLS-LCH-LFT LINE DURING THE DAY. IF THIS CAN OCCUR...PRESENCE OF
STRONG SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED
TORNADOES. ATTM...THE LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF SUCH A THREAT
APPEARS TOO SMALL TO JUSTIFY AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...GREAT BASIN...
WARMING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTMS IN WEAK CAPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NV/UT/NW
AZ.

..CARBIN.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.