[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 010601
SWODY2
SPC AC 010600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE MAR 01 2005

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE EKO ENV 35 ESE
U24 45 NNW INW 45 NW PRC 35 SE LAS 50 NE TPH 20 SE EKO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE P07 55 NNE P07
15 ESE MAF 15 SSE PVW 35 NNW CDS 25 SW OKC 40 ENE PRX 35 NNW SHV 45
NNE POE 30 S HEZ 25 SSW GPT.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE IN
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST...THOUGH SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EWD / SEWD THROUGH WRN MEAN RIDGE.  AT THE
SURFACE...STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NERN U.S.
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW DRIFTING NWD OVER ERN CANADA. 
ELSEWHERE...PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY NONDESCRIPT / LACKING IN
STRONG ZONES OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE BAROCLINICITY.

...CENTRAL AND SERN TX EWD ACROSS COASTAL LA...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY OVER S CENTRAL AND SERN OK INTO ADJACENT NRN / NERN
TX.  THESE STORMS -- PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION -- SHOULD SHIFT ESEWD WITH TIME ACROSS E TX...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN LA AS LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS / SHIFTS EWD.  LIMITED
SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- MAY EXIST WITH THESE
STORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ANTICIPATED.

GREATER SEVERE THREAT -- ALBEIT STILL LIMITED -- APPEARS POSSIBLE
FURTHER W ACROSS CENTRAL TX AND SWD INTO S TX DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS SECOND UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. 
THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MODEST -- PARTICULARLY NWD
INTO CENTRAL TX...PERSISTENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITHIN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000
J/KG SURFACE-BASED CAPE BY AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS ATTM THAT ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN WEAK SURFACE CONFLUENCE / CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF UPPER FEATURE ACROSS CENTRAL TX -- WITH
PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED EXPANSION OF ONGOING E TX / LA CONVECTION SWWD
INTO S TX.  THOUGH WEAK FORCING AT THE SURFACE AND WEAK CAPPING
SHOULD LIMIT STORM COVERAGE...MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE 30 TO 50 KT
RANGE SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONGER / ORGANIZED STORMS.
 LARGE HAIL AND A LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. 
ATTM...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY.

THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...LIMITED THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD
ACROSS THE LA GULF COAST.  THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
PRIMARILY OVER THE GULF...SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE
COAST COMBINED WITH FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO,

..GOSS.. 03/01/2005

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.