[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 300533
SWODY2
SPC AC 300532

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
BML 20 SSE GON ...CONT... 35 E SBY 35 SE TRI 20 SE CSV 35 SE BWG 30
SSE SDF 45 ENE LUK 10 SSW YNG 60 NW ROC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE
COS 35 NW AKO 10 ESE SNY 35 NNW IML 25 NNE GCK 10 ESE OKC 40 SW ADM
55 SW SPS 35 NNW TCC 10 SW TAD 25 ENE COS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW
GFK 50 SE DVL 15 SE JMS 65 SW JMS 40 NW MBG 40 W Y22 65 NE 4BQ 45 N
MLS 15 WSW GGW 75 NNW GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S BPT 15 E TPL 20
NNW HOB 20 NW ROW 35 NNE 4CR 35 S ALS 10 WSW 4FC 35 WNW LAR 50 SE
WRL 25 WNW JAC 50 NNW SUN 20 E LWS 60 NE 63S ...CONT... INL 30 NNE
LNK 15 S BIE 25 SW TOP 15 WSW COU 30 SSW DNV 30 SW FWA MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO SEWD INTO WRN
OK/NWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN MT/ND...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE EWD FROM ONTARIO/CNTRL
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY 2
PERIOD WITH STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN APPALACHIANS INTO NEW ENGLAND. IN THE W...NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE
PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES...WITH PRIMARILY WNW FLOW REGIME FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY COLD FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF 01/12Z...WILL PROGRESS
EWD/SEWD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...WITH WRN EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER N TX INTO ERN NM.

...NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A BROKEN LINE OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG
COLD FRONT FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER.
DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA
SWWD INTO ERN OH/WV AND ERN KY. SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF SLIGHT RISK AREA.
UNIDIRECTIONAL CHARACTER OF VERTICAL WIND PROFILES OBSERVED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD AS FAR E AS WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO THE DELMARVA
FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
COOLS AND STABILIZES.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO NWRN TX/WRN OK...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING INVOF OF SURFACE FRONT FROM CNTRL/SRN OK AND N TX NWWD INTO
NERN NM AND ERN CO WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2500 J/KG.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN
CA/SRN ORE...HOWEVER MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE E OF INSTABILITY AXIS BY TIME OF PEAK HEATING.
THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN 
UPSLOPE REGIME OVER ERN CO/NERN NM AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG SYNOPTIC
FRONT OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE PRIMARY MECHANISMS
DRIVING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

MODEST /25-35 KTS/ WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SURFACE WINDS WITH AN
ELY COMPONENT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY MERGE INTO CLUSTERS OR A MCS FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER WRN KS/TX PNHDL WITH HAIL/WIND THREAT SPREADING SEWD INTO
WRN OK/NWRN TX.

...ERN MT/ND...
APPEARS BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOWER THAN FARTHER S
OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING LARGELY IN THE 50S. 
NONETHELESS...STEEPENING LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ALONG WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD THROUGH AREA. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...TN VALLEY/ARKLATEX SWD TO THE GULF COAST...
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST ALONG AND
S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SHIFTING SWD. PRESENCE OF RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS OF 70-75F/ AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS PORTION OF
FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF LARGER STORM CLUSTERS
CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

..MEAD.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.