[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 301733
SWODY2
SPC AC 301732

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2005

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
EFK 20 WSW EEN 25 SSE POU 25 SE JFK ...CONT... 35 E SBY CRW 10 SSE
LOZ CKV 10 WSW EVV DAY 10 S CAK 25 WNW ROC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM TCC
RTN PUB 10 S BFF CDR 30 NNE VTN BUB 30 WSW HLC 15 S GCK GAG OKC 10
SE MKO 10 ESE LIT GWO JAN MCB 15 SE ESF GGG FTW 55 SW SPS PVW TCC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW ELO 15 WNW DLH
40 SSE AXN 25 ESE YKN BIE TOP TBN 10 SW MVN 25 SSW HUF 40 SE FWA 35
E TOL ...CONT... 20 S BPT 15 E TPL 20 NNW HOB 20 NW ROW ABQ 4BL 10
ENE MLF ENV WMC SVE MHS MFR 15 NNW RDM PDT 45 NW S06 100 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE LEE OF THE GREAT LAKES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VALLEY
INTO THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

SUPPRESSION OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY...AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS THROUGH STRONGER
BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  MOST SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...PROGRESSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO AND THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY...IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY...INTO QUEBEC AND AREAS EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z
SATURDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERN STREAM JET WILL
DIG EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BROADENING CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST STATES...AND FLAT UPPER
HIGH CENTERS WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN/SOUTHERN U.S. PLATEAU REGION. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL DIG ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES.

...OHIO VALLEY/ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY EASTERN CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INTO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES.  NARROW
PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGES...EXTENDING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO
UPSTATE NEW YORK...WILL PROVIDE FOCUS OF STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION
FRIDAY.  BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...CAPE FOR PARCELS BASED IN MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F IS EXPECTED IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG.

GIVEN DESTABILIZATION...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL
AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO NEW YORK STATE.  BETTER FLOW/SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE
LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BUT LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MORE UNCERTAIN.  BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER DARK...WHEN LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE IN LEE SURFACE TROUGH.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AIDED BY SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSE...CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS AT 12Z FRIDAY.  AS ASSOCIATED
COLD POOLS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY...BENEATH INCREASINGLY
WEST NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REGIME...HEATING/ DESTABILIZATION OF MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY APPEARS LIKELY
TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.  LACK OF BETTER FLOW WILL
BE OFFSET BY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WHICH WILL PROMOTE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
BENEATH SEASONABLY MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL
PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION REGIME WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WHEN STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING HAS OCCURRED...AND SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION BY PEAK HEATING HOURS...COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF BETTER FORCING.  ACTIVITY MAY
BE CONFINED TO BETTER WARM ADVECTION REGIME NEAR THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA...AND THE LEE OF THE MONTANA ROCKIES...
DOWNSTREAM OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

..KERR.. 06/30/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.