[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 291731
SWODY2
SPC AC 291730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
ROC HLG 45 NW CSV 35 SSW DYR 30 NW FSM 30 N OKC 50 NE AMA 40 N TCC
40 ENE LVS 35 E ALS 25 W COS 25 S CYS 45 E CYS 30 SSE SNY 20 NE GLD
10 S CNK 10 S OTM 10 SW MSN 90 NNE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 25 ENE Y22
40 ENE COD 55 E PIH 20 SSW 27U 45 WSW BKE 20 NNW PUW 45 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE LRD 10 N ALI
20 WNW LCH 20 NNE PRX 25 SSW SPS 20 ESE LBB 40 SSW TCC 55 SSW LVS 30
ENE SAF 20 ENE ALS 45 SW LAR 20 S 81V 25 SE RAP 25 N MHN 20 WSW EAR
30 WNW BIE 10 SW OMA 55 WSW FOD FRM 20 SW STC 50 SSW BJI 70 N DVL
...CONT... 25 W ART 30 NW ITH 30 SSW UCA 20 SW BTV 3B1 25 E BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES / OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH / CLOSED LOW -- INITIALLY OVER
THE NRN PLAINS -- WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY
REGION THIS PERIOD.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THIS FEATURE
WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO LARGER-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH...RESULTING IN
AN EXPANSION OF CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...DEEP / OCCLUDED LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER SERN
SASKATCHEWAN / SWRN ONTARIO / NWRN MN SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
ONTARIO TOWARD JAMES BAY WITH TIME.  COLD FRONT EXTENDING INITIALLY
FROM ERN WI / LK MI WSWWD ACROSS NWRN IL / NRN MO INTO KS SHOULD
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION / SEWD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY AND INTO THE OH VALLEY / SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION...
THUNDERSTORMS -- AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE THREAT -- SHOULD BE ONGOING
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND PERHAPS AS FAR WWD AS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  THOUGH ONGOING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
CONTAMINATION / CLOUD COVER WILL INFLUENCE EVOLVING SEVERE THREAT IN
SOME AREAS...OVERALL EXPECT MOIST PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM
INTENSIFICATION / REDEVELOPMENT ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT FROM LOWER MI
SSWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY.

THOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED / SEVERE STORMS.  WITH
PRIMARY STORM MODE EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.  STORMS / SQUALL LINE SHOULD
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH
SEVERE THREAT LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...KS / NRN OK WWD INTO ERN CO / NERN NM...
AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR
AND S OF ENE-WSW FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS KS / OK / NM / THE
TX PANHANDLE.  WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG / ISENTROPIC
LIFT N OF FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING.  WITH MODERATE /25 TO 35 KT/ WLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW INVOF FRONT...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
-- ESPECIALLY JUST N OF BOUNDARY WHERE ELY / SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH
THE GREATEST TORNADO THREAT JUST N OF FRONT WITHIN BACKED LOW-LEVEL
FLOW REGIME.

STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS ERN
CO...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS / SEVERE THREAT WILL
ALSO EXIST.  OVERNIGHT...EXPECT STORMS TO PERSIST / SHIFT SWD / SEWD
ACROSS KS / OK AS FRONT CONTINUES SAGGING SLOWLY SWD.

..GOSS.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.