[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 290519
SWODY2
SPC AC 290518

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2005

VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
ROC 30 NNE PKB 45 NW CSV 35 SSW DYR 30 NW FSM 30 N OKC 50 NE AMA 40
N TCC 40 ENE LVS 35 E ALS 25 W COS 25 S CYS 45 E CYS 30 SSE SNY 30
SSW GLD 20 SSE SLN 30 ENE UIN 30 NE JVL 105 NE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE ISN 15 SW GDV
50 SE LVM 55 WNW 27U GEG 65 NNW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE MSS 25 N UCA
15 ENE UCA 30 WSW EPM ...CONT... 15 WNW LRD 45 SE AUS 40 S GGG 25 SE
PRX 25 SSW SPS 40 E ROW 35 NW ROW 15 SSE ABQ 50 SW DGW 25 NNE DGW 15
SW CDR 40 NNW IML 10 ENE MCK 35 WSW BIE 10 SW OMA 35 SSW SPW 35 W
RWF 15 NNE FAR 15 NNW GFK 70 W RRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
SWWD INTO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP...SYNOPTIC SYSTEM OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AT 30/12Z WILL
PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD WITH MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE. TRAILING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM INITIALLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO ROTATE SEWD INTO MEAN TROUGH BASE THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN MN WILL DEVELOP
NEWD...REACHING NERN ONTARIO BY 01/12Z. PRIMARY COLD FRONT WILL
CONCURRENTLY PUSH EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH
VALLEY...AND SWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE MCS IS ANTICIPATED AT THE ONSET OF THE
FORECAST /30/12Z/ ALONG OR SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THIS STRONGER FORCING NEWD
INTO ONTARIO OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...SUGGESTING THAT INITIAL
MCS MAY TEND TO WEAKEN THURSDAY MORNING.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH
RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW/MID
70S/ ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2500-3500
J/KG FROM PORTIONS OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD INTO TROUGH
BASE WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON FROM
LOWER MI SWWD INTO CNTRL/SRN MO. RELATIVELY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES AND LINEAR FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT SUGGEST THAT
STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO KS/OK...
DESPITE WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH WWD EXTENT...APPEARS
STRONG HEATING AND SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WWD ALONG FRONT ACROSS CNTRL/SRN KS INTO
NRN OK. MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ANAFRONT STRUCTURE SHOULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE/COLD POOL ORGANIZATION WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER TO THE W...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST OVER THE CO FRONT
RANGE SWD TO THE RATON MESA WITHIN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH STORMS TENDING TO
WEAKEN AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.

..MEAD.. 06/29/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.