[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 281724
SWODY2
SPC AC 281723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1223 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 45
SSE DLH 40 E AUW 35 WNW MKE 20 SW RFD 20 ENE DSM 55 WSW FOD 30 SW
SPW 25 NE RWF BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE
ANJ 25 NE GRR 15 E CMI 45 WNW TBN 35 WSW P28 25 S GCK 40 S HLC 30 NE
GRI 25 WNW FSD 30 E ABR 30 SSW GFK 10 E RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE GLS 50 S PBF
25 WNW ARG 35 NE HRO 45 ESE GAG 35 WSW LBB 35 NW GDP 25 NE SVC 35
WSW ONM 35 ENE 4CR 15 WSW DHT 45 SW PUB 40 NW GJT 20 NE VEL 35 WNW
RWL 30 NNE RIW 35 W COD BZN 25 W HLN 30 N PUW 45 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF
MN...MUCH OF WI...NRN IA...AND FAR NWRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
SWWD INTO KS...

...SYNOPSIS...
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE NERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE STRONG
TROUGH / EVOLVING LOW MOVING EWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY / WRN UPPER LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS TROUGH / LOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD.  FURTHER WEST...MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW /
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ACCOMPANY THE N CENTRAL U.S. UPPER TROUGH. LOW
CENTER INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS SD / NEB SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO MN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN BEGIN DEEPENING RAPIDLY AS IT
CONTINUES NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
 ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE WRN UPPER LAKES
REGION SWWD INTO NRN OK / THE OK AND TX PANHANDLE REGION.

...MID AND UPPER MS / MID MO VALLEYS...
AS ALLUDED TO ABOVE...STAGE IS BEING SET FOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS OF THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EWD INTO MN AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD.  THOUGH THIS CONVECTION COULD POTENTIALLY COMPLICATE THE
SCENARIO FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST ATTM THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ND / NRN MN INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.  

ASSUMING THIS TO BE THE CASE...AIRMASS FURTHER S -- JUST AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW / COLD FRONT -- SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCONTAMINATED.
 WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SHOULD YIELD MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS
/2000 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.

AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES AND CAP WEAKENS ALONG COLD FRONT...EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS MN BY MID-AFTERNOON...AND THEN SWWD
ACROSS IA INTO ERN NEB AND PERHAPS CENTRAL KS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING.  THOUGH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
SEVERE / SUPERCELL STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
FRONT FROM MN SWD INTO KS...MOST FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS
FORECAST FROM ERN NEB ACROSS IA AND INTO MN / WI -- ALONG AXIS OF 60
KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK.  ACROSS THIS REGION...INTENSE /
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  THOUGH LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...POTENTIAL FOR A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF
TORNADOES ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST ATTM -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MN / WI AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW / INVOF WARM FRONT...WHERE BACKED /
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS ANTICIPATED.

OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE LINEARLY-ORGANIZED WITH TIME
ALONG FRONT...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND FRONT STRENGTHENS.  THIS
COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...NEW ENGLAND...
WEAK UPPER VORT CENTER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH
SECOND UPPER FEATURE CROSSING ERN QUEBEC SETTLES SWD ACROSS NRN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE FEATURES COMBINED WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  

THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST /20
TO 25 KT/ WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONGER /
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL /
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS.  ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SLIGHT RISK THRESHOLDS.

..GOSS.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.