[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 280529
SWODY2
SPC AC 280528

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CDT TUE JUN 28 2005

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E
APN 30 NW TOL HUF 45 WNW TBN 35 WSW P28 25 S GCK 55 SE GLD 25 NE BUB
15 SW HON 65 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LCH 10 NE GLH
25 NE JBR 35 NE HRO 45 ESE GAG 55 ENE ROW 35 E DMN 35 NW SVC 85 E
SOW 40 NE 4SL 15 ESE CEZ 25 SSE CNY 10 ESE PUC 30 SE EVW 40 S LND 45
NW CPR 15 S SHR 50 ESE LVM 25 W HLN 30 N PUW 45 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO THE
CNTRL PLAINS EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE ALL IN GOOD IN AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING VIGOROUS
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES AT 29/12Z
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BY 30/12Z. SOME DIFFERENCES DO
EXIST IN HANDLING OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE
SRN CA COAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ENTRAIN THIS FEATURE INTO
BROADER CIRCULATION OF PRIMARY TROUGH...WHEREAS THE NAM MAINTAINS IT
AS MORE OF A DISTINCT VORTICITY LOBE SHEARING OUT ACROSS KS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT
DEVELOPS NEWD FROM CNTRL/ERN SD...EVENTUALLY OCCLUDING OVER SWRN
ONTARIO WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST WITH WRN
EXTENSION OF BOUNDARY SETTLING SWD THROUGH KS.

...MN/IA EWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES...
ONE OR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE MCS/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS
WEDNESDAY MORNING ALONG SYSTEM COLD FRONT OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...AND
POSSIBLY EWD OVER PORTIONS OF MN/IA WITHIN DOWNSTREAM WAA REGIME
ASSOCIATED WITH SWLY LLJ. STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF APPROACHING
TROUGH COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE
INFLOW AIR MASS SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING STORMS BY
LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON OVER MN...IA AND WI. THIS INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH 55-65 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WARM
SECTOR SUGGESTS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES:
1) EMBEDDED IN ONGOING MCS/S...AND 2) ALONG TRAILING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND SYSTEM COLD FRONT. ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE
STORMS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO A LONG-LIVED BOW ECHO OR LEWP-TYPE MCS WITH
DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

UNCERTAINTY REGARDING INITIAL CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
RESULTANT NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON SYSTEM WARM SECTOR PRECLUDE ISSUANCE
OF A MODERATE RISK ATTM. HOWEVER...ONCE FINER-SCALE DETAILS BECOME
MORE CLEAR...A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
THOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS BECOME MORE SWLY...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT. INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH SWWD EXTENT ALONG COLD FRONT...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE STRONG
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD NAM SOLUTION
VERIFY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM
DISTURBANCE WOULD LEAD TO A GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.

MODERATELY STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF
LARGER-SCALE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THIS AREA RESULTING IN
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE
FAIRLY HIGH-BASED OWING TO DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

...NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NEW YORK...
A FEW STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING
TO THE S OF COLD FRONT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE BRIEFLY CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 06/28/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.