[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 271734
SWODY2
SPC AC 271733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N
GFK 20 SSE BJI 30 E MLI STL 35 ESE VIH 20 WSW TBN 30 ESE OJC 20 SE
FNB 40 E HSI 30 NNW BBW 30 NW VTN 40 NNW RAP 45 ENE SHR 30 NNW WRL
15 NNE JAC 35 SSW WEY 30 SSW BZN 25 N LVM 85 SSW GGW 65 ENE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW GLS ESF 20 WNW
GLH 40 S UNO 25 ENE SGF 50 SSE OJC 20 WNW ICT 45 NNE DDC 20 ENE GLD
20 ENE BFF 45 SSE DGW 35 S 4FC DRO 65 NW GUP 30 W FLG 60 ESE DAG 25
SSE NID 15 N FAT 35 NW TVL 10 SSW NFL 35 ENE EKO 40 S BYI 45 ENE BOI
55 E S80 35 SE 3TH 50 N 63S ...CONT... 40 NW EPM 15 ESE LEB 15 W BAF
10 SE ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD
INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST AT MID-LEVELS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES -- AND
INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...TROUGH
MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION
SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN
CANADA / THE UPPER LAKES...WHILE RETREATING NWD THROUGH THE DAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO THE MID MO / MID MS VALLEY REGIONS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION...WHERE WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR / N OF
SURFACE FRONT FORECAST TO BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION.  STORMS
/ LIMITED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE / MOVE ESEWD ACROSS IA AND INTO
PARTS OF NRN MO / WRN IL THROUGH THE DAY...AIDED BY PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW.

THOUGH NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EWD
ACROSS ERN CANADA...TRAILING PORTION OF FRONT ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE DAY -- ALONG WITH ANY OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.  STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON
ALONG WRN PORTIONS OF BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS
INTO ERN MT...AHEAD OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 50 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. 
THOUGH SEWD EXTENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD BE
LIMITED BY CAP...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS FAR SEWD AS WRN SD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AIDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY FORECAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

ALONG WITH FAVORABLE INSTABILITY...INCREASINGLY-STRONG FLOW ALOFT
ABOVE LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELL STORMS.  THOUGH GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY
IF STORMS ORGANIZE INTO AN ESEWD-MOVING MCS OVERNIGHT. SOME THREAT
FOR TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS -- PARTICULARLY ALONG FRONT / OUTFLOWS
WHICH SHOULD BE RETREATING NWD ACROSS SD THROUGH THE DAY.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES / LOWER OK / TN VALLEY REGION...
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH INVOF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS THE LOWER MS
/ LOWER AND MIDDLE OH / TN VALLEYS AS WELL AS INVOF WEAKENING COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A LIMITED /
LOCAL SEVERE THREAT WITH A FEW STRONGER PULSE STORMS.

..GOSS.. 06/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.