[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 270536
SWODY2
SPC AC 270535

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2005

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW
CMX 35 WSW RHI 35 NW DBQ 30 NNE OTM 25 S DSM 40 SE OMA LNK 15 NW GRI
30 W BBW 10 WSW CDR 15 NNW GCC 60 SW MLS 70 SSW GGW 55 N GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S LCH 40 S ESF 20
WNW GLH 35 WSW UNO 35 SW SZL 25 NNE EMP 10 SSW SLN 40 NW P28 35 NE
LBL 40 ESE LAA 35 N ALS 20 WSW MTJ 20 ENE PUC 30 N DPG 55 ENE BOI 50
N 63S ...CONT... 10 SSE HUL 15 SE LCI 15 W BAF 10 S JFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MS AND MID MO VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PACIFIC NW /PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 27/00Z U/A ANALYSIS/ IS FORECAST TO
TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF AK. FARTHER E...TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWD TO THE GULF COAST...WITH PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES
SITUATED N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM SERN MT
INTO WRN SD BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM WRN ND TO THIS SURFACE LOW AND THEN SWWD INTO THE
CNTRL ROCKIES. ATTENDANT WARM FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WILL CONCURRENTLY LIFT NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN SD AND SRN MN...WHILE
LEE TROUGH IS MAINTAINED FROM LOW PRESSURE SWD TO SECONDARY LOW
PRESSURE OVER WRN/CNTRL KS.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLUSTERS OF TSTMS OR A MCS MAY
BE ONGOING INITIALLY FROM LS/WRN UP OF MI SWD INTO IA INVOF SURFACE
LOW AND WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING EWD ACROSS SRN ON. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHAT EFFECT
LINGERING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THIS
LEAD SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SUBSEQUENT DESTABILIZATION OF AIR MASS
AHEAD OF TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGEST INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP FROM
THE MID MO VALLEY NWWD INTO WRN SD WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES
APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTMS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
NUMEROUS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS.

APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES...WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS
ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WRN
SD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES INVOF
OF SURFACE LOW EWD ALONG WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
LOCALLY STRONGER.

ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MCS OR BOW ECHO TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING EWD
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND POSSIBLY NRN NEB INTO MN/NRN IA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

...GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
/MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG/ WITHIN DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS MAY SUSTAIN
ACTIVITY SEWD THROUGH THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM LOWER MI INTO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD INTO
INSTABILITY AXIS FORECAST ALONG/E OF THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA...HOWEVER THE MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

..MEAD.. 06/27/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.