[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 261741
SWODY2
SPC AC 261739

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW
ANJ 40 WSW OSH 45 SSW ALO 25 SE HSI 30 SSW MCK 35 E AKO 35 NE CPR 25
NW WRL 35 SSE MQM 35 SE 27U 25 SE MSO 40 S CTB 20 SE HVR 10 WNW DIK
45 ESE BIS 20 N FAR 10 NW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MFE 50 N HOU 35
W TXK 45 NE CNU 30 SE TOP 30 ESE MHK 15 SE SLN 25 SSW AMA 30 NNW GDP
15 NW ELP 30 NNW SVC 30 SSW GUP 55 E VEL 15 NE RKS 30 ESE BPI 45 E
MLD 45 E OWY 60 WSW BOI 20 NNW PDT 60 NW EAT 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 55
N BML 20 SSW PSM 10 E BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...CNTRL PLAINS...NRN PLAINS AND NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

A CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. AS THE CAP WEAKENS IN THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN SD TO CNTRL MN AND SPREAD SEWD. SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 70 SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ORIENTED FROM ERN SD TO CNTRL MN. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE PRESENT SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT
SPREADS. IN ADDITION...THE BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE
FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTING A LINEAR MCS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS EARLY ON
AND BOW STRUCTURES LATER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE. IN THIS
CASE...THE BEST TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL THREAT WOULD BE EARLY IN THE
PROCESS WITH A TRANSITION TO MOSTLY WIND DAMAGE BY EARLY EVENING.
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AS THE
LINE MOVES SEWD INTO ERN NEB...IA AND WI OVERNIGHT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
AT UPPER-LEVELS...A FLAT RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. LIFT AHEAD OF ANY SHORTWAVE THAT TRAVERSES THE RIDGE WILL
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN WY AND MT AND
SPREAD EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL CREATE HIGH-BASED
STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGESTING A LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT
WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MAINLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...SE US...
AN UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE ASCENT OVER A BROAD AREA RESULTING IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOW MLCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2000
J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 20 KT. THIS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND
DAMAGE AND HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WOULD BE EARLY IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION BEFORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSE
INSTABILITY TO DECREASE SOME ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.