[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 260528
SWODY2
SPC AC 260527

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2005

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
ANJ 25 NNE MSN 25 E DSM 15 N BIE 30 N LBL 35 WNW EHA 10 SSE LHX 50 N
LAR 35 ENE RIW 55 ESE WEY DLN 20 N MSO 15 SSW CTB 10 WNW DIK 45 ESE
BIS 20 N FAR 10 NW RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W MFE 40 N HOU 30
SW LFK 30 ENE MKO 45 NE CNU 15 SW TOP 10 SE HUT 20 NW GAG 50 W AMA
55 SSW CVS 25 NW GDP 15 ENE DMN 70 NE SAD 45 WNW GUP 25 NNW 4BL 30 N
GJT 30 NW CAG 40 NE RKS 25 E BPI 60 WSW BPI 40 S BYI 10 SSW OWY 70
WSW BOI 30 E PDT 15 WNW EAT 35 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML 20 SSW PSM
10 E BID.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN
GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SRN NV IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
OVER ND BY 27/12Z...BEFORE SHEARING OUT OVER ONTARIO WITHIN
CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME. MEANWHILE...26/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DIVING SWD ALONG BC
COAST...WHICH WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. OVER
THE CNTRL GULF COAST...WWD-MOVING CIRCULATION WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ENTRAINED INTO PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES WITH SYSTEM BECOMING
INCREASINGLY SHEARED AS IT TURNS MORE NWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH
VALLEYS.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND
FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD SWWD THROUGH SERN SD AND THEN NWWD TO
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN/CNTRL MT BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LEE TROUGH WILL ALSO STRETCH FROM TRIPLE POINT ON FRONT OVER SWRN SD
SWD THROUGH WRN NEB INTO ERN CO/WRN KS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO NRN ROCKIES...
NOCTURNAL TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO ONTARIO EARLY IN THE DAY
MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF INITIAL CONVECTION...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED
WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
FRONT OVER CNTRL/SRN MN SWWD INTO CNTRL NEB WITH MLCAPES OF
2000-4000 J/KG. INCREASED LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER
DISTURBANCE EMERGING OUT OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN WI/CNTRL MN SWWD
ALONG FRONT.

PRESENCE OF 30-40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
ANTICIPATED DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

TO THE W...STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH EVOLVING TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF ID/WRN MT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH
STORMS LIKELY INTENSIFYING AS THEY ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY MORE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER ERN HALF OF MT.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
INCREASING WLY MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL
SERVE TO STRENGTHEN LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE CIRCULATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS
WRN NEB SWD INTO ERN CO/WRN KS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BE RELATIVELY
HIGH-BASED GIVEN HOT...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG
TROUGH/DRYLINE. FORECAST VERTICAL WIND PROFILES INDICATE POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS/ORGANIZED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...SERN STATES INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
FORCING FOR ASCENT E OF MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY FOCUS A
CONCENTRATED AREA OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING 
FROM AL/GA NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS WITHIN
WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THOUGH VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE A COLD POOL.

..MEAD.. 06/26/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.