[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 251728
SWODY2
SPC AC 251727

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW
CMX 40 S STC 35 ESE LBF 40 WNW GLD 10 NNE LIC 35 E FCL 50 ESE DGW 50
SSW GCC 25 ESE COD 35 NE WEY 50 WNW 3HT 35 N LWT 20 NE GGW 60 NNE
ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW ROC 30 SSE AUG
...CONT... 25 NE ACY 25 SW MGW 25 NE LEX 10 SSW LEX 35 NW LOZ LOZ 35
E 5I3 30 NE ORF ...CONT... 65 SSE LRD 10 WNW NIR 30 W CLL 20 NW FTW
35 E OKC 30 ENE CNU 50 NNW SZL 25 W P35 25 E BIE 45 NNE RSL 35 SE
LBL 45 SW LBB 50 WNW MRF ...CONT... 70 S GBN 35 SE PRC 35 W U17 30 S
SLC 40 NNW DPG 40 SSE BAM 65 ENE SVE 40 SE LMT 75 NNW 4LW 25 NW PDT
10 N EAT 30 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS AND NRN PLAINS...

...NRN PLAINS...
BROAD SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH DAY 2 ACROSS THE
NCNTRL US. A FLAT RIDGE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL SLIDE NEWD BEING
REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY MIDDAY ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS ND WITH
A SFC TROUGH IN PLACE IN WRN SD. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...A
CAPPED AIRMASS WILL EXIST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS OF 65 TO 70 F. AS THE
CAP WEAKENS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN ND WITH DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH IN WRN SD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOW
MLCAPE VALUES UPWARDS TO 4500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING
FROM 40 TO 50 KT WHICH SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. THE STRONG
SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO RESULT IN A LARGE
HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
IN THE EVENING HOURS SPREADING EWD ACROSS ND...NW MN AND NRN SD. THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY GRADUALLY
DROPS ACROSS THE REGION.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY WITH A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING
SWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NE CO. AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE
SUNDAY...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE CO AND
POSSIBLY ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR 21Z
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS SHOW MLCAPES OF 1500 J/KG
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 KT WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
MULTICELL SEVERE THREAT. DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES...THE MAIN THREAT
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY AS THE
STORMS MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION ALONG THE SFC TROUGH.

...NY/PA...
A COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE AND MOVE INTO SRN NY/NRN PA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INVERTED V-PROFILES. THIS MAY
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
ISOLATED AND BRIEF.

..BROYLES.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.