[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 250530
SWODY2
SPC AC 250529

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2005

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW
CMX 55 SSE DLH 35 WNW MSP 30 NW OTG 10 ESE YKN 30 W EAR 20 SW MCK 50
ESE AKO 30 SW SNY 15 SSE BFF 55 NNE DGW 30 WNW WRL 35 NE WEY BZN 20
NNE 3HT 75 ENE LWT 20 SSE GGW 70 NNE OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 25 ENE MGW
30 W UNI 35 SSW LUK 25 WSW LEX 25 WSW LOZ 40 WNW TRI 20 ESE SSU 40 N
RIC 20 NE WAL ...CONT... 40 NW BUF 30 SSE AUG ...CONT... 25 W MFE 15
NNW VCT 55 W LFK 20 NE MKO 30 SSW JEF 25 NE IRK 45 NW LWD 50 SSW HSI
55 SSW HLC 30 WNW CVS 65 SSE ELP ...CONT... 25 WSW FHU 25 ENE IGM 35
NE MLF 25 WSW ENV 40 ENE LOL 25 NE SVE 25 E MHS 45 SW RDM 25 W PDT
20 WSW EAT 35 SE CLM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY WWD
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MEAN TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD FROM WRN
CANADA SWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW AND ERN PACIFIC...WITH DOWNSTREAM
REGION OF CONFLUENT FLOW FROM HUDSON BAY SWWD INTO THE N-CNTRL
STATES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...APPEARS TWO PRIMARY FEATURES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FIRST...NRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER SK/MB 26/12Z WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD
ACROSS SRN HUDSON BAY. SECOND...SRN STREAM SYSTEM WHICH WILL LIFT
NEWD FROM NV/UT INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD ACROSS S-CNTRL CANADA
AND THE NRN PLAINS...AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM SRN MB SWWD TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL SD AND THEN INTO NRN WY BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. ATTENDANT LEE TROUGH WILL STRETCH SWD FROM THIS LOW THROUGH
WRN NEB INTO ERN CO...WHILE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY BECOMES
PROGRESSIVELY DIFFUSE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST EWD ACROSS THE SRN
GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...UPPER MS VALLEY WWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
CLUSTERS OF NOCTURNAL TSTMS /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ MAY BE ONGOING
INITIALLY ALONG FRONTAL ZONE OVER ND WITHIN WAA PATTERN ASSOCIATED
WITH SLY LLJ. THESE STORMS WILL SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO SERN
MB/WRN ON AS LLJ AXIS MIGRATES NEWD AHEAD OF NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. IN WAKE OF THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
TO STRONG AFTERNOON INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 2000-4000 J/KG/ WITHIN
PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN.

WITH APPROACH OF GREAT BASIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TSTMS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MT AND WY...AS WELL AS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SERN
MT/NERN WY INTO ND. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN/CNTRL
SD...WRN NEB INTO ERN CO. APPEARS MOST INTENSE STORMS /INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES/ WILL OCCUR ALONG PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE FROM SERN MT/SWRN
ND NEWD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CO-EXIST. WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD EXTENT
SUGGESTS THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY ALONG LEE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
MULTICELLULAR...BUT STILL CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN GREAT LAKES/NRN OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NE ENGLAND...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH
TIME IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES TO THE N OVER WRN/CNTRL ON.
HOWEVER...APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK CAP IN CONJUNCTION WITH
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ MAY BE SUFFICIENT
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS ALONG REMNANT
BOUNDARY. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
STRONGEST STORMS...WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

..MEAD.. 06/25/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.