[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241721

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
RRT 60 W AXN 20 NNW MHE 40 NE VTN 65 E CDR 50 WNW CDR 60 WSW GCC 40
SSW BIL 15 W LWT 30 N HVR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
BCE 40 NNW MLF 30 SE ENV 45 SW MLD 10 NE MLD 50 WSW BPI 45 SSW BPI
20 NNW VEL CNY 15 S 4HV 30 NNE BCE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 30 NNW VCT
45 N GGG 30 E FSM SGF 40 SSW SZL 45 SW OJC 25 NW LBL 50 SW CAO 40
WNW 4CR 75 NW TCS 50 SE PRC 25 ENE IGM 50 SW P38 45 ESE TPH 40 W TPH
65 NE MER 20 SSW SAC 60 S EKA ...CONT... 50 S AST 45 SW DLS 10 NE
PDT 45 S S06 30 NNW CTB ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 N BRD 30 N MSP 20 SE
EAU 20 WSW GRB 110 E OSC ...CONT... 20 SE NEL 50 WSW UNI 15 E SDF 15
ESE CKV 40 NNW HSV 25 N GAD AND HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS
AND HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...NRN PLAINS/HIGH PLAINS...
AT UPPER-LEVELS...A BELT OF WLYS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY. MODEL FORECASTS BRING
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE REGION AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES WILL AID STORM INITIATION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT BY
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ALONG THE INSTABILITY
AXIS IN THE WRN DAKOTAS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE CAPPING
INVERSION WEAKENS.

MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD INTO THE
REGION. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F SHOULD YIELD
SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1500 J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS
WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT 21Z ACROSS THE REGION SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 TO
50 KT SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY
MATERIALIZES BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR A TORNADO THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR
WILL ALSO MAKE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP OFF
IN THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

...UT/SW CO AND FAR SE ID...
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD THE REGION
SATURDAY WITH A BAND OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS UT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH STORMS INITIATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
MID-AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000
J/KG WITH ABOUT 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE VERY STEEP AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
SUGGESTS A HAIL AND/OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES...
WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS A
MID-LEVEL JET OVER SERN CANADA PULLS EWD AWAY FROM THE REGION.
NAM/GFS IDENTIFY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO LOWER MI AND THIS
FEATURE WOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT WHERE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
IS FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z SHOW
INVERTED V-PROFILES SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED DUE TO THE WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR IN PLACE.

..BROYLES.. 06/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.