[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 240539
SWODY2
SPC AC 240538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT FRI JUN 24 2005

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W
RRT FAR 20 NW MHE 25 NE VTN 15 E CDR 55 WNW CDR 60 WSW GCC 40 S BIL
45 NW 3HT 40 NE HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 25 NW VCT
35 SSW TYR 30 ESE PRX 35 E FSM 50 N SGF 35 SSE OJC 20 ENE HUT 20 ESE
DDC EHA 50 SW CAO 30 W 4CR 65 WNW TCS 50 SE PRC 25 ENE IGM 50 SW P38
45 ESE TPH 40 W TPH 65 NE MER 20 SSW SAC 60 S EKA ...CONT... 30 S
AST 50 SW DLS 10 NE PDT 45 S S06 35 NNW CTB ...CONT... 40 E RRT 10 N
BRD 30 N MSP 20 SE EAU 20 WSW GRB 110 E OSC ...CONT... 20 SE NEL 50
WSW UNI 15 N BWG 30 WSW BNA 25 NW HSV 30 N GAD AND 10 E HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EWD
INTO THE DAKOTAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY 2 PERIOD OVER THE WRN
U.S. INTO SRN CANADA WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS/SRN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. WITHIN THIS REGIME...THREE
DISTINCT FEATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. FIRST IS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL CANADA/ WHICH WILL TEND TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT
TRANSLATES ACROSS ERN CANADA INTO THE MARITIMES.
SECONDLY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH /CURRENTLY OVER NWRN BC/ WHICH WILL
ROUND BASE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY EJECT NEWD ACROSS SRN
AB/CNTRL SK INTO MB. FINALLY...SRN STREAM TROUGH WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...FRONTAL SYSTEM ATTENDANT TO ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SAG SEWD THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE
NERN STATES...WHILE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE RETREATS NWD
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER MT. SECONDARY
LOW /ASSOCIATED WITH GREAT BASIN TROUGH/ WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NEWD
ACROSS NV INTO SRN ID...WITH TRAILING WEAK FRONT/TROUGH EVENTUALLY
EXTENDING SWD INTO THE LOWER CO VALLEY.

...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST OVER MT SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO APPROACHING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG/JUST N OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. INCREASING SELY FLOW WILL ENHANCE NWWD
ADVECTION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH AIR MASS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES 1500-2500
J/KG/ BY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.
DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPSLOPE
INVOF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SHOULD
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING
WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INTO THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY
NIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH A
WIND/HAIL THREAT SPREADING EWD.

...NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
PLUME OF RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ADVECTED
NEWD AHEAD OF SAGGING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING
MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-2000
J/KG. DESPITE RELATIVELY POOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT...WEAK CAPPING COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH DEPARTING
ERN CANADA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NRN NY...HOWEVER NEARLY
PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO FRONTAL ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT AN ORGANIZED/MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR.

...GREAT BASIN...
APPEARS LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
PORTIONS OF UT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
MID/HIGH-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ROUNDING GREAT BASIN TROUGH. PROXIMITY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. PRIMARY
UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP...WHICH
PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

...FL AND SERN COAST...
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY CURRENTLY EXISTS IN SHORT RANGE MODELS WITH
HANDLING OF ELY WAVE WHICH WILL AFFECT REGION DURING THE DAY 2
PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND
SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST INVOF SURFACE REFLECTION
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF
SYSTEM TRACK...NO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED ATTM.

..MEAD.. 06/24/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.