[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 231717
SWODY2
SPC AC 231716

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE
OSC 20 SSW BRL 40 NE MHK 20 SW HLC 35 NE LIC 20 NE FCL 35 E WRL 45 N
COD 15 N LVM 30 WNW 3HT 15 WNW LWT 65 ENE LWT 40 E MLS 25 E PHP 15
SSW 9V9 20 WNW OTG 45 E EAU 15 NW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW 45 SSE SDY
20 W MBG 35 WNW HON 40 WNW RWF 30 SSE IWD 85 NW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S HUL 10 SW MWN 10
WNW ELM 30 ESE MFD IND 40 SSW SZL ICT GAG 35 SW CDS 40 SSE BGS 40
WNW DRT ...CONT... CZZ 30 E RAL 25 WSW DRA 50 S ENV 15 N ENV 30 E
OWY 65 N WMC 40 NNE SVE 45 NW SVE 20 ENE MHS 20 E MFR 70 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX LFK 35 E SHV 45
SW HSV 60 ENE RMG 40 SW SOP HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER
MIDWEST...CNTRL PLAINS AND HIGH PLAINS...

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
ALBERTA WHICH WILL SLIDE EWD TONIGHT ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA. THIS WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH THE BOUNDARY
LIKELY LOCATED FROM THE GREAT LAKES EXTENDING WWD TO IA/NEB AND NWWD
TO SRN MT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM BEHIND THE FRONT
IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
TROUGH.

A CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY ACROSS MOST OF KS AND NEB
WITH LITTLE OR NO CAPPING PRESENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...MN AND IA.
THIS MAY ALLOW POST-FRONTAL STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS SHOWN BY THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS ACROSS SE SD AND SRN MN. AS THE
CAP WEAKENS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE BOUNDARY...ADDITIONAL
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN NEB EXTENDING EWD ACROSS IA INTO SRN
WI AND LOWER MI. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A BAND OF STRONGER DEEP
LAYER SHEAR NEAR THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN EDGE OF A
MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. THE FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH
SHOULD BE IN ERN NEB AND WRN IA BY EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS OR BOW STRUCTURES
THAT DEVELOP. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS AND COLD
POOL CAN GENERATE AND MOVE EWD ACROSS ERN NEB AND IA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP AS
INSTABILITY DECREASES OVERNIGHT.

...HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL PLAINS...
AT UPPER-LEVELS....A RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE
EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN WY AND CNTRL MT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INITIATE
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG
WITH WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CREATE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES
WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CONSIDERING LOW-END MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE CONSIDERING LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. THE ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED DUE TO WEAK
ASCENT ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-RIDGE. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DROP
BY LATE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.