[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 230543
SWODY2
SPC AC 230542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT THU JUN 23 2005

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
MTC SBN UIN MHK 45 SSW GLD LIC CYS DGW 40 SE SHR COD BZN LWT 30 S
GDV REJ RAP 10 SSE MHN BUB SUX RST RHI 50 ENE MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N GGW P24 PIR 30
SSE 9V9 FSD 40 NNW IWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 3B1 MWN UCA FKL
FDY HUF 10 SE STL 40 SSE OJC ICT GAG CDS BGS 40 NW DRT ...CONT...
CZZ 25 E RAL 40 SW DRA 10 NNW DPG 60 S BYI OWY 70 NNW WMC SVE 50 S
RBL 45 N 4BK OTH YKM 50 NW 63S.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PSX LFK GWO HSV CHA
AND 35 NW FLO GSB HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THRU THE MID MO VLY/CNTRL PLAINS INTO CNTRL/NRN
HIGH PLAINS....

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH...CENTERED THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AS VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH FLATTENS CREST
OF RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  THIS PROCESS MAY
SLOW SOME FRIDAY...WITH RIDGE AXIS ELONGATING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.  LAST COUPLE OF GFS/NAM
RUNS SEEM TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF CANADIAN SHORT WAVE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT SYSTEM NOW IS PROGGED TO LIFT FARTHER TO THE
NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  MODELS SUGGEST STRONG WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET IN BASE OF THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AT 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH CENTRAL
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY 12Z SATURDAY.

IN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...MODELS SUGGEST
SEVERAL EMBEDDED IMPULSES COULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
GULF COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...MORE PROMINENT AND WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES...AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 
THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE QUITE AS NUMEROUS AS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS ACROSS THE WEST...DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ZONAL FLOW
OFF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC.  HOWEVER...SOUTHERN STREAM LOW/TROUGH
PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA...AND ANOTHER DIGGING SHORT
WAVE IN MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS.

SEVERE THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS...BOTH EAST AND WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY MINOR THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.  HOWEVER...HAIL/WIND EVENTS MAY BE A BIT MORE NUMEROUS IN
SCATTERED CLUSTERS ALONG FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.

...LOWER MID MO VLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES...
LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST ANY EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM NEAR THE MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER TODAY LIKELY WILL BE
NORTH/EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...AT
LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING EARLY
FRIDAY IN TRAILING LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT BAND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION...POSSIBLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY. 
THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST EAST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH DAY...SLOWLY
INTENSIFYING IN PEAK DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF IOWA/SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TO THE NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT.  BUT...WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH FOR WEAK TO MODERATE
SHEAR IN ENVIRONMENT WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. 
THIS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN BROKEN LINE
OR SMALL STORM CLUSTERS

CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHEN CAPPING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN MAY ALSO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR PERIOD
OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG SOUTH OF STALLING SURFACE FRONT
VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BY
PEAK HEATING.  HOWEVER...CAPPING ALONG FRONT AND ABOVE MOIST
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME NORTH OF FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE 
WEAK ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.  THOUGH
FLOW FIELDS WILL BE WEAK...VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY CREATE ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE RISK OF
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IN BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000
J/KG.  ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY CENTRAL
PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET...BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

...LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM MONTANA INTO COLORADO...
DEVELOPING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC FIELDS ACROSS THIS REGION APPEAR LIKELY TO
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND
THREATS.

..KERR.. 06/23/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.