[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 221735
SWODY2
SPC AC 221734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
ANJ 35 WNW IMT 40 NNE EAU 20 SE STC 30 WNW AXN 25 N FAR 60 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE OTH 40 SE SLE
50 N BNO 15 SSE BNO 35 ESE 4LW 25 W RNO 50 NNW SAC 55 SSE EKA 45 ESE
OTH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE OSC 45 SE MBL
15 WSW MSN 30 N DSM 20 W BIE 45 NNE DDC 20 NE PVW 45 ENE FST 30 SSW
P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE NIR 35 ESE CLL 15
NNW POE 50 WSW SEM 30 NE LGC 15 NE SPA 10 W RDU 25 E ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IPL 55 NNW DRA
45 WNW TWF 40 SSW 3DU 40 SSE GTF 60 NW MLS 25 WSW Y22 25 SW BIS 50
NE MOT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS SRN
CANADA DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD AS UPPER SPEED MAX MOVES EWD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AS SFC FRONT MOVES INTO NWRN
MN/ERN SD BY 24/00Z.

VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME IS ADVECTED AHEAD OF
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 14-16C FROM ERN CO...NEWD
ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN.  THIS WILL SUPPRESS WARM SECTOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  IT APPEARS STRONG
FORCING ALONG COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MANITOBA...WITH SWD
DEVELOPMENT INTO NRN MN BY EARLY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT
SPREAD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BORDER...HOWEVER STORM MODE MAY BE LINEAR DUE
TO FORCING NEEDED FOR INITIATION.  SWD EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY INTO SWRN MN IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO STRONG CAP.  ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE U.P. OF MI WILL OCCUR
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HOWEVER...FARTHER SW...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN A DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG DRYLINE FRONTAL INTERSECTION
OVER NRN NEB.  HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WITH ROUGHLY 20KT WLY FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW MULTICELL...POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATE AFTERNOON.  TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WITHIN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER
FAVOR GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  ADDITIONAL
STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN UPSLOPE REGION BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT FROM NEAR THE BLACK HILLS INTO NRN WY.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
STRUGGLE TO BECOME AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT AS INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY BE LACKING DUE TO DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER.

..DARROW.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.