[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 220547
SWODY2
SPC AC 220546

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2005

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC
LNR OMA EAR LBF 40 NW VTN HON 50 NNE ABR DVL 65 NNE DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW MFR 50 NW RDM
BKE BNO 4LW TVL 10 SW SAC 55 SSE EKA 15 WNW MFR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 35 E LAS 35
W OGD MQM 40 ESE HLN MLS 40 SW Y22 BIS 15 S MOT 75 NE MOT ...CONT...
30 N JHW 25 ESE FKL BKW 10 ESE BWG 25 N TCL 10 E LGC 10 WSW CAE 15
SSW FAY 15 SE ECG ...CONT... 30 ENE PSX AUS 45 ESE DAL HOT 10 ENE
POF 35 E UIN 15 WNW P35 10 NNE CNK 25 E LBL 35 NNW CDS 45 ENE FST 30
SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THU/THU NIGHT FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION....

SERIES OF IMPULSES...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING UPPER CIRCULATION
LIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC COAST REGION...WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES TODAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.  MODELS SUGGEST EVENTUAL MERGING OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THESE
FEATURES AND UPSTREAM IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA...SOMEWHERE IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...BEFORE
ACCELERATING EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL FLATTEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTH CENTRAL STATES...WITH A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER JET STREAK
DEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER.  PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR FROM SASKATCHEWAN
INTO ONTARIO...BUT LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.

FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MODELS INDICATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN STRONG THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
STATES...WHILE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING IN WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NOW EXISTS CONCERNING ANTICIPATED
CONVECTIVE MODE DURING THIS PERIOD...AS MORE FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH OF THE U.S. BORDER.  HOWEVER...DEEP MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
WISCONSIN.  WITH HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE AS HIGH AS 4000
J/KG...WEAKENING MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED FROM NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA/NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  WITH A BETTER RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THIS
REGION...BEFORE SPREADING EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO ONTARIO.

LOW-LEVEL JET IS PROGGED TO REMAIN VEERED IN ANTICYCLONIC ARC FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE DAY...AND
LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR CONVECTION UPSTREAM...SOUTH OF THE U.S. BORDER
IS MORE UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SEEM
LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO MINNESOTA...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FALLS ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.  

TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON...MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...PERHAPS
ENHANCED BY FORCING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF HIGH-LEVEL JET. 
THIS MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES 30 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET AXIS.  IF THIS OCCURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM MINNESOTA IN WISCONSIN DURING THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE/SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO VICINITY OF THERMAL LOW OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AT THIS
LATITUDE...BUT STRONG HEATING/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL.

...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. 
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SEEMS SMALL...
BUT HIGHLY LOCALIZED HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED.

..KERR.. 06/22/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.