[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 211731
SWODY2
SPC AC 211730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2005

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NE
MQT 45 ENE AUW 15 E LSE 35 ESE MKT 15 NE RWF 30 SW AXN 45 W FAR 50
WNW JMS 35 S P24 35 SE GDV 20 W MLS 75 NNE BIL 65 SW GGW 60 NNW OLF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CZZ 60 N NID
60 S NFL 20 N NFL 35 SE BOI 25 S S80 35 E EPH 55 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N APN 30 ENE GRR
30 SSE SBN 20 NE MTO 35 NW STL 40 SSW P35 35 NE FNB 25 SE SUX FSD 10
ENE MHE 35 SE 9V9 20 W BBW 30 E GLD 25 NNW DHT 25 NNE ROW 50 SE ELP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MFE 20 SW NIR
50 S CLL 10 NNW POE JAN 50 S MSL 40 W CSV 25 W JKL 10 SE CRW MGW 20
SSE BFD 20 W ITH RUT 20 WNW EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MT TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS BENEATH UPPER RIDGE
WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. 
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WRN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT
NNEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN BEFORE
SHIFTING EAST AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.

IT APPEARS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
WITHIN STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF THE BORDER...MOST
LIKELY OVER SASKATCHEWAN.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF THIS CLUSTER OF TSTMS INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN ALL LIKLIHOOD
THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE INTO NERN ND/NRN MN DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE TURNING SEWD INTO A MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER WITHIN STRONG VEERING PROFILES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
12Z NAM ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER CNTRL MN WITH
ROUGHLY 6000 J/KG SBCAPE AND 35KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  HOWEVER THIS
DEPICTION IS LIKELY A BIT TOO UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED GIVEN THE DEEPENING
WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  AT ANY RATE...A POTENTIALLY
SEVERE MCS SHOULD TOP THE CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND MOVE SEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH
THIS CONVECTION.

UPSTREAM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V TYPE PROFILES WILL BE IN PLACE AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT...INITIALLY OVER NERN MT...POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING SWWD TOWARD NRN WY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 06/21/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.