[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 200539
SWODY2
SPC AC 200538

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1238 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
MOT 60 NNE BIS JMS AXN 35 NE MSP LSE 35 SE DBQ BRL P35 BIE EAR MHN
10 NNW AIA 35 E 81V GDV 65 N OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CAR 3B1 MWN 30 NNW GFL UCA ELM DUJ MFD FWA SBN 40 SSE MBL HTL 20 NNE
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE INL 10 SSE DLH
CWA GRB TVC 25 N APN ...CONT... BOS NEL 15 N RWI 10 E ECG ...CONT...
10 WSW GLS 35 NW HOU MLU GLH MSL 5I3 10 SSW HTS BMG 35 N EVV 10 N
ARG 15 SE UMN EMP GCK AMA 10 S HOB 70 SW GDP ...CONT... 40 SW FHU
PHX EED ELY EKO BOI 10 ESE 4LW 30 ENE 4BK 20 WSW OLM 20 N BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE AFTN/EVE FROM PARTS OF THE
LWR GREAT LAKES INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUE/TUE NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY....

A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES HAVE FLATTENED NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF LARGE UPPER
RIDGE...NOW GENERALLY CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
 MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ...WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S./ CANADIAN
ROCKIES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. 

RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO PIVOT EAST OF THE ROCKIES TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...AS WEAKENING PACIFIC COAST CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA.  IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENTS
UPSTREAM...MODELS INDICATE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...REACHING
SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY/NORTHERN ONTARIO BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WILL DIG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN CANADIAN
PROVINCES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHEAST...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRONGER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO NARROW CORRIDOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MIDDAY...AND AS FAR
WEST AS LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE CAPE TO 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR ON
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

PRE-FRONTAL INSTABILITY AXIS AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
AREAS TO THE EAST MAY APPROACH THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THAT PROGRESSION SOUTH OF THE
BORDER MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER PEAK HEATING. THOUGH A FEW STORMS
MAY REMAIN SEVERE WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/UPSTATE NEW YORK AND THE LEE OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES...TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR STORMS TO WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS THEY
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TUESDAY EVENING.

...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
LATEST NAM AND PAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE GENERATED FAIRLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE SIGNAL FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION...ON NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CAPPING MID-LEVEL
HIGH CENTER.  CONSISTENCY IN TIMING OF INITIATION OF THIS CONVECTION
IS LOW.  ALSO...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO WHETHER THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN IMPULSE IN STREAM OF FLOW AROUND HIGH CENTER...EMANATING
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU...OR IN STREAM EMANATING FROM THE
PACIFIC...AROUND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW. 
HOWEVER...SUPPORT EXISTS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FOR EITHER SCENARIO.


GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF DEEP MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...POTENTIALLY STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST INTO THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS AT LEAST
SUPPORTS RISK FOR EVOLUTION OF LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG APPEARS LIKELY WITH HEATING... AND
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF BOTH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG DOWNBURSTS IN MOST VIGOROUS STORMS...ENHANCED BY
FAVORABLE SHEAR ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW.

OTHERWISE...DEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS/EXTREME EASTERN MONTANA STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL/
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS PRIMARY THREATS.

..KERR.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.