[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 191737
SWODY2
SPC AC 191735

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3DU 35
SE FCA 35 S HVR GDV DIK 30 NNE ABR 45 NE ATY OTG YKN 35 NE ANW RAP
4BQ LVM 3DU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM HUM ESF PBF
MDH DAY ZZV 45 ENE CRW PSK GSO FAY 20 ENE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC GRR CGX BRL STJ
RSL LBL INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU PHX PRC GCN CNY CAG CYS
BFF 25 SW GCC COD JAC SUN BOI 4LW MHS 35 NE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 NNE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...WITH THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM CA NWD TO WA/ORE AND THEN
EWD ALONG THE NRN TIER STATES AND CANADA.  MID LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW OVER THE ERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE CUT-OFF FROM
THE FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD...AS THE NRN EXTENT OF
THE WRN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  MEANWHILE...
CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NRN CA/ORE SHOULD SHIFT
SLOWLY WWD.

...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A NRN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE LOW
OVER CANADA IS PROGGED TO EXTEND ACROSS NRN MN INTO SD AND THEN
WNWWD INTO SRN MT AT 12Z MONDAY.  THE NRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE SD PORTION
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY BENEATH WLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG NRN EXTENT OF
UPPER RIDGE.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG/N OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS INTO NRN MN...WITHIN WAA ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNAL LLJ. MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THE FRONT AND BENEATH
PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL STATES WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY.  OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING
THE MORNING WITH THE DECREASE IN THE LLJ.  HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/
SURFACE FRONT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL
MN/NRN WI.  THIS REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER
FLOW AND IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF MID LEVEL JET... WITH NRN STREAM
SYSTEM PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR CONVECTION AS
SURFACE HEATING AIDS IN WEAKENING THE CAP.  CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETERS
SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ NOSING INTO
SD MONDAY NIGHT SUGGESTS UPSCALE EVOLUTION FOR ANOTHER MCS ACROSS
MAINLY SD AND MOVING EWD INTO MN/NWRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY.

...MONTANA...
THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD ACROSS
MT ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS THIS REGION. 
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.  STRONG FLOW ALOFT
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...ORE/WA...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ORE INTO WA ON MONDAY.  SUFFICIENT
MID LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE HEATING WITHIN MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS THIS PERIOD.  THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST STATES AND SRN FL.  STRONGEST MID LEVEL FLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TO CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND
ALSO BENEATH SRN STREAM JET OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

..PETERS.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.