[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 201715
SWODY2
SPC AC 201714

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW
CLE 50 WNW CLE 30 ESE FWA 20 E CMI 25 SSE UIN 40 W BIE 15 WSW LBF 30
S CDR 35 ESE 81V 35 ENE 4BQ 15 SW MLS 15 N BIL 35 S BZN 45 WSW BTM
30 SE 3TH 65 NW FCA ...CONT... 55 N DVL 45 SW GFK 40 NW AXN 30 NW
MSP 35 SE CWA 25 SE MBL 35 NE MBS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E PSX 35 WNW HOU
45 S TYR 35 S TXK 30 W PBF 50 W MEM 10 NNE ARG 20 S TBN 15 WSW SZL
25 ENE SLN 35 SSE HLC 20 NW DDC 35 SE LBL 50 WNW CDS 45 E HOB 70 SW
GDP ...CONT... 10 SSW YUM 55 NW EED 35 ESE TPH 30 NW BAM 40 NW WMC
SVE 20 ENE RBL 45 E ACV 45 N 4BK ...CONT... 10 ESE INL 10 NE HIB 10
W IWD 25 ENE MQT 70 NNW ANJ ...CONT... BOS 10 WNW EWR 20 WSW NHK 35
NNW HSE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE
GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOW EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG THE
U.S. CANADIAN BORDER.  REGENERATING STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL
OSCILLATE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN PROVIDING THE NECESSARY
INSTABILITY FOR REPEAT MCS-TYPE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TO LOWER MI...

LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING FROM
LATE DAY1 CONVECTION ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROPAGATE STRONGLY SEWD DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS FLOW TURNS 
MORE NLY ON FRONT SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  THIS MCS MAY BE SEVERE
AT 12Z...POSSIBLY REINTENSIFYING BY LATE MORNING AS IT MOVES ALONG
STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS...SBCAPES AOA 3000 J/KG.  EXPANSION OF
PRECIPITATION/COLD POOL WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE SWD EXTENT OF THIS
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THIS COMPLEX COULD MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS SERN NEB/SRN
IA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MORE NLY COMPONENT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALOFT.

OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS LOWER
MI/WI NEAR PEAK HEATING.  BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS AND
INCREASING NWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL ENABLE UPDRAFTS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVE INTO NRN PORTIONS OF IL/IND/NWRN OH BY
EVENING.

...NRN ROCKIES...

EARLY MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD.  STRONG HEATING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN ID/WRN MT. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE HIGH
BASED...BUT STRONGLY SHEARED.  IT APPEARS CLUSTERING DOWNSTREAM OVER
CNTRL/NRN MT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER HIGH PLAINS
MCS...ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES WELL AFTER DARK.  DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...INITIALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE
OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK.  HOWEVER...MORE ORGANIZED WIND
THREAT COULD EVOLVE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AFTER DARK.

...GULF STATES...

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER NLY FLOW ON BACK
SIDE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAIRLY COOL ACROSS
AL/GA INTO ERN TN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY
18Z...BEFORE SPREADING SSWWD TOWARD THE NERN GULF COAST.  MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS ISOLATED MICROBURSTS CAN BE EXPECTED.

..DARROW.. 06/20/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.