[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 190530
SWODY2
SPC AC 190529

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT SUN JUN 19 2005

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 3DU 35
SE FCA 35 S HVR GDV DIK 30 NNE ABR 45 NE ATY OTG YKN 35 NE ANW RAP
4BQ LVM 3DU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE HUM HUM ESF PBF
MDH DAY ZZV 45 ENE CRW PSK GSO FAY 20 ENE ILM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC GRR CGX BRL STJ
RSL LBL INK 50 W MRF ...CONT... 15 SSE FHU PHX PRC GCN CNY CAG CYS
BFF 25 SW GCC COD JAC SUN BOI 4LW MHS 35 NE 4BK 30 ESE AST 15 NNE
BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MON/MON NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

UPPER RIDGE NOW BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN
STRONG THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HIGH CENTER MAY SHIFT WESTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL
AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU AND
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE PLAINS.

MODELS SUGGEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF LARGER PACIFIC COAST
TROUGH INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AND ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DIGGING OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST TERRITORIES...WILL ACCELERATE
EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE
OF THE NORTHERN U.S./CANADIAN ROCKIES...AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO NORTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA.

DOWNSTREAM...A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH MAY
BEGIN TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  MODELS
VARY WITH REGARD TO THIS...BUT ALL SUGGEST UPPER TROUGHING/WEAK
MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL PERSIST SOUTH/EAST OF THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI
RIVERS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN IMPULSES...STRONG WEST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
JET...DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER TODAY...WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY.  FORCING IN RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...BUT BY 12Z MONDAY...ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING.  UPPER FORCING WILL DIMINISH/SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID DAY...WITH
SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET PROGGED AS
WELL.  THUS...POTENTIAL FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA/IOWA AND NEBRASKA APPEAR
MINIMAL.  

SCATTERED STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...FROM MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT STRONGER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH/EAST.  MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN
CENTRAL STATES MAY REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE SOUTH/WEST OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY.  BY PEAK HEATING...STRONGER
LOW/MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT APPEARS LIKELY TO SET UP FROM
NORTHWEST IOWA WESTWARD THROUGH NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...ON NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE.

UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING UPPER FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT SURFACE HEATING/LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF
MODERATE WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
PRIMARY THREATS.  

ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE
EVENING...AIDED BY NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET...AND SEVERE THREAT MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE DEVELOPING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIMINISHING.

...MONTANA...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION MONDAY.  WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS. 
VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...AND EVOLUTION OF
SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH/EAST OF LEWISTOWN MAY OCCUR AS
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
MODELS SUGGEST AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON WESTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVER
MID/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  GIVEN WEAK CAPPING...SCATTERED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALIZED PULSE
HAIL/WIND EVENTS.

..KERR.. 06/19/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.