[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 181735
SWODY2
SPC AC 181734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE
ELO 15 E STC 30 SE BKX 50 SSE 9V9 AIA DGW 10 W WRL 50 ENE WEY 20 N
BZN 10 E LWT 15 ESE GDV DIK 60 NE BIS 70 N GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
MLB ORL GNV 10 NE MAI 30 S CSG SAV 35 E SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 60 NNE MOB
0A8 ANB GSP RDU 35 S WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT EAU FOD 45
NW BBW 10 S LBF 15 NNE GLD 20 WSW LHX 15 SW PUB 10 WSW 4FC RWL LND
10 S MLD OWY 30 N WMC 10 SSE MHS 30 ENE CEC 15 SW OTH ...CONT... 15
SSW HQM 20 WSW OLM 25 E OLM 45 E SEA 70 ENE BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE ELP 35 NW GDP
25 SW ROW 30 ENE ROW 50 WSW LBB 55 SSW LBB 30 S MAF 15 WNW P07 60
SSW P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND
NRN/CENTRAL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ON
SUNDAY...AS CLOSED LOW PERSISTS OFFSHORE OF NRN CA AND UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE SRN PLAINS...WITH
HEIGHT RISES NNWWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  THE NRN EXTENT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW ENGLAND...AS
A COUPLE OF UPSTREAM TROUGHS MOVE EWD INTO CENTRAL CANADA...GLANCING
MUCH OF ND AND CENTRAL/NRN MN WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS.  A WEAK TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/SERN STATES AND SWWD
INTO MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD THROUGH
CENTRAL CANADA TO HUDSON BAY ON DAY 2...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ESE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.  THIS FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM NWRN-NRN MN TO SWRN SD/CENTRAL WY BY EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING AROUND 20/00Z. AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY TRACK EWD INTO NRN MN SUNDAY
MORNING.  NEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT SWWD INTO SD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING AND FRONTAL FORCING WEAKENS THE
CAP.  STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. DESPITE THIS FACTOR...SUFFICIENT INCREASE IN
WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING SEGMENTS FROM NRN MN TO ND/SD.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MT.  STRONGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THIS REGION COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS.

LLJ WILL RE-INTENSIFY SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
COOL MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IN STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SRN GA AND
NRN/CENTRAL FL.  ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR WEAK COLD FRONT/ ATLANTIC
COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS SE GA/NRN FL WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
STORMS...AS WILL SEA BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR/COASTAL AREAS OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PENINSULA.

...SWRN WA/ORE TO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ROTATE AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NRN CA INTO ORE/ID ON SUNDAY.  A 35 KT
SLY MID LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO ORE DURING PEAK HEATING...WITH
STRONGER FLOW UP TO 45-50 KT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CA TO ID. 
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH MOVING NWD
ACROSS ORE/SRN WA TO FAR WRN ID WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  INSTABILITY...THOUGH GENERALLY MARGINAL...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND CASCADES OF ORE/SRN WA EWD TO FAR WRN ID.  ELY UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE CASCADES COMBINED WITH SLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT
IN DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT.  HOWEVER...CAPE/SHEAR VALUES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.