[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 180535
SWODY2
SPC AC 180534

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2005

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE
ELO BRD HON 9V9 AIA DGW 10 W WRL 15 SSE JAC 10 W PIH 40 NW SUN BTM
10 E LWT 15 ESE GDV DIK 60 NE BIS 70 N GFK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N
MLB ORL GNV 10 NE MAI 30 S CSG SAV 35 E SAV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PNS 60 NNE MOB
0A8 ANB GSP RDU 35 S WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP COT DRT 10
ESE JCT 45 SE BWD 20 SE SEP 25 ESE DAL GGG 20 SSE 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E MQT MSP YKN 45
NW BBW 10 S LBF 15 NNE GLD 20 WSW LHX 15 SW PUB 10 WSW 4FC RWL LND
10 S MLD OWY 30 N WMC 10 SSE MHS 35 WNW MFR OLM 30 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN/SUN NIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE
NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SUN ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
GA...NRN AND CNTRL FL....

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE...EMANATING FROM
PACIFIC COAST TROUGH...WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HUDSON/JAMES BAY
REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS OUT OF THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES...ON SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF POLAR LOW.

THOUGH EVOLVING PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS FROM
MANITOBA INTO QUEBEC...UPPER RIDGING WILL REMAIN STRONG ALONG AN
AXIS FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES...BUT MODELS
INDICATE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE EASTERN GULF STATES.

...NORTH CENTRAL STATES...
UNCERTAINTIES ARE INCREASING CONCERNING STRENGTH OF INHIBITION
BENEATH MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE AN
IMPULSE ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN IT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY
MOIST...AND...MODELS SUGGEST...POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO STRONGLY
UNSTABLE WITH HEATING.

LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD CENTRAL
CANADIAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.  THIS APPEARS LIKELY TO CURVE ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING BY PEAK HEATING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WIND SHIFT COULD ACTUALLY PROGRESS AS FAR
SOUTH AS NORTH CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA...BUT STRONGER CAP COULD
PRECLUDE  CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.

STORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP WHERE OROGRAPHY AND UPSLOPE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE FORCING NEAR FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING INTO PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO.  UPPER JET
STREAK NOSING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN LATE IN THE DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THIS REGION... SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE/DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.  

EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...NEAR THE WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER...DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG SHEAR BENEATH MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ENHANCING POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH DAMAGING WINDS...AS STORMS
CONSOLIDATE/SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
COOL MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE HAIL/WIND
POTENTIAL IN STORMS DEVELOPING SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA.  ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR
WEAK COLD FRONT/ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
/NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORMS...AS WILL SEA
BREEZE ACROSS INTERIOR/COASTAL AREAS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PENINSULA.

..KERR.. 06/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.