[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 171729
SWODY2
SPC AC 171728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45
WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50
SSE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSW MRF 50 S BGS 70 SE LBB 25 WNW EHA CYS DGW
VEL DPG ELY TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY
OFK STJ UMN ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN 35 SE
LBE 25 NNW ILG 20 ENE ACY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FROM DAY 1 INTO DAY
2.  UPPER LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE PAC NW COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD
ON SATURDAY...WITH DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  THIS BUILDING RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN THE SUBSEQUENT SEWD TRACK OF A TROUGH FROM THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TO THE MIDDLE AND SRN ATLANTIC COASTS.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER AR PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL EARLY IN
THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN ADVANCE OF OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH.  ASCENT WITH
THIS TROUGH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS SRN
GA/NRN FL THROUGH 18/18Z.  THE GREATER SEVERE THREAT IS PROGGED TO
BE ACROSS GA INTO CENTRAL AND ERN SC/NC AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS TROUGH.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW OVER GA AND
ALONG A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD INTO NC/VA.

SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS OF GA TO NC WILL
ADVECT MID-UPPER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INLAND TO SUPPORT A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  SEVERE THREAT SHOULD THEN
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE AIR MASS STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAY TIME HEATING.

...ROCKIES/PLAINS...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO BE MOVING INTO SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA...AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA IS LOCATED ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CA TO ERN MT...INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS
WILL ENHANCE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OVER THE NRN PLAINS. 
TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
ND...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL ND SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
CENTRAL/ERN WY.  SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN
A NARROW MOISTURE AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AS A DRIER AIR
MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA WITHIN AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS MID-LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WILL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WY
SURFACE LOW AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE INTO SOUTHEAST MT.  VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY EXPECTED ALONG/E OF COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH 40-45 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SLY LLJ NOSING INTO ND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
SUPPORT STORMS EVOLVING INTO AN MCS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING
THE PRIMARY THREAT AS ACTIVITY MOVES ENE ACROSS ND AND NRN SD.

..PETERS.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.