[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 170550
SWODY2
SPC AC 170549

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2005

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM VRB 45
WSW ORL GNV 25 NE VLD ATL 10 ENE AHN CLT DAN 40 S RIC ORF 35 E ECG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
RRT FAR ABR PHP 50 NW CDR 30 SW GCC COD BIL GDV 75 NE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS CLL 50 WNW AUS 50
SSE DRT ...CONT... 70 SSW P07 45 SW INK CVS LIC CYS DGW VEL DPG ELY
TVL UKI 35 W MFR 15 N BLI ...CONT... 45 E INL HIB ATY OFK STJ UMN
ARG GWO LUL 15 SSE MOB PFN MAI DHN AUO RMG HSS EKN PSB ABE 25 ENE
NEL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS....

MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFICATION OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF PACIFIC
COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.  ANOTHER
UPSTREAM IMPULSE WILL FOLLOW SUIT...REACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS
EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT IMPULSES WITHIN STRONG JET
WEST OF TROUGH AXIS WILL MAINTAIN SLOW DIGGING OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DIGGING FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES.  AS THIS
OCCURS...DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SHARPEN FROM THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  THIS WILL SUPPORT STRONG
DIGGING OF SHORT WAVE IN BASE OF LARGER SCALE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
COAST.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
SOME DRYING MAY OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORT WAVE ROTATING OFF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY/TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTAL PLAINS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOIST WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F. SUFFICIENT RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FARTHER INLAND TO SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
SATURDAY...AS STRONG HEATING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

BY PEAK HEATING...MIXED LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS COASTAL AREAS.  AIDED BY
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ..SCATTERED
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  ACTIVITY MAY
BE MOST WIDESPREAD ALONG ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZES...BUT ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED NEAR LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND ALONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH/EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR PROFILES SOUTHEAST OF
APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT RISK FOR DOWNBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

...ROCKIES/PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO CAP MUCH OF THE PLAINS
SATURDAY.  EXCEPTION MAY BE NEAR DRY LINE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO EXIST
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING/SOUTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH NORTH
DAKOTA...PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  THOUGH THIS REGION
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TO THE ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF 100 KT HIGH
LEVEL JET NOSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...MODELS SUGGEST
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKENED BY INITIAL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE.


SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY NEAR
THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...AND IN POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE
REGIME ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.  GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH CAPE
RANGING UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 ALONG/EAST OF SURFACE FRONT...SHEAR PROFILES ON
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER JET WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL APPEARS PRIMARY THREAT...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS SOUTHWEST
/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS MAY SUPPORT EVOLUTION
OF LARGER MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. IF THIS OCCURS... RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS WILL INCREASE...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS/ DIMINISHES
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

..KERR.. 06/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.