[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 160600
SWODY2
SPC AC 160559

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ
40 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 30 NNE JAN 40 N MSY 35 NW 7R4 45 SSE LFK 25
ENE DAL 15 W LTS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL
40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW
LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E
LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG
30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N GFK 15 WNW ATY
30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 30 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN 45 N
SAV ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES/PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/OK SEWD INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LONG WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
WRN/ERN U.S. THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH RIDGING EXPECTED IN THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...WITH A SECONDARY MAXIMUM POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MCS-TYPE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE KS/OK REGION...SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER SPEED MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MT BY PEAK HEATING.  IT APPEARS TSTMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION.  WITH
TIME THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE OFF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARD ERN MT
WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...SFC TEMPERATURES NEARING
90F.  RESULTANT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS AS
TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40F. 
DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER SHOULD ENHANCE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ANY
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH LINE SEGMENTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING.  WITH TIME LLJ WILL INCREASE
ACROSS WRN ND ENABLING CONVECTION TO EVOLVE INTO A POSSIBLE LINEAR
MCS BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS NERN MT/SRN SASKATCHEWAN.  SRN EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY INTO SERN MT/WRN SD IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO SRN CANADA.

...KS/OK...SEWD INTO LA...

UNTIL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE
AXIS...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN CO/NERN NM WHERE ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT IS
MAINTAINED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE SEWD INTO INSTABILITY AXIS
ACROSS SRN KS/OK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FAVORABLE NOCTURNAL
LLJ WILL ENHANCE INFLOW INTO EXPANDING ELEVATED CLUSTERS.  DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.

FARTHER SOUTHEAST...REMNANTS OF LATE DAY1 MCS WILL EMERGE OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD EASILY REINTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS/DESTABILIZES
DOWNSTREAM.  IN FACT...MODELS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED
WITH EARLY MORNING MCS...WHETHER AN ARTIFACT OF THE MCS OR THE CAUSE
OF THIS CLUSTER...IT APPEARS NWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ALOFT ENHANCING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF SQUALL LINE DOES
ORGANIZE.

..DARROW.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.