[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 151748
SWODY2
SPC AC 151748

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1248 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
MOT 30 SSW BIS 30 SE PHP 35 WNW BBW 20 SW CNK 20 SW TOP 25 NNE HRO
35 NW GWO 40 NNE HEZ 50 SSE SHV 50 SE PRX 10 WSW DUA 40 E SPS 35 NW
ABI 25 NNE MAF 10 N HOB 30 WNW CVS TCC 10 SSW CAO 40 SW DEN 40 N CPR
35 W SHR 50 SSE LVM 35 ENE DLN 50 SSW 3DU 35 NW MSO 90 WNW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM
50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10
NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NE DVL 35 NE ABR
45 NNE SUX 60 W DSM 40 SSW IRK 25 E MDH 50 ENE MKL 20 SE MEI 35 ENE
DHN 55 W SAV 30 NE CRE ECG 40 WSW RIC 30 SSW SHD 40 W EKN 35 WSW HLG
50 NNW MFD 10 SE MBS 20 E PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S GLS 40 ESE ACT
25 SSE ABI 40 ESE MAF 30 W FST 40 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 W CAR 25 SW BHB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE REGION FROM THE
NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO THE LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS ON THURSDAY WILL FEATURE
A DEEP CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AN UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...AND ANOTHER DEEP CYCLONE
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST. WHILE DIURNAL TSTMS ARE
LIKELY TO BE SCATTERED AMIDST THE COLD CORE LOW CIRCULATION IN THE
EAST...THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED STORMS
WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH AND LOW...FROM THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND NRN ROCKIES SSEWD TO THE SRN PLAINS AND LWR
MS VLY.

...PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LWR MS VLY LATE...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING AN OVERNIGHT MCS EVOLVING
ACROSS KS BY LATE IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST QPF/UVV SIGNALS...ENSEMBLE FCSTS
WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR ONGOING DEEP CONVECTION
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE OVER ERN KS/WRN MO. LATEST LOW
TO MID LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTS A NW-SE
ORIENTED ZONE OF POTENTIAL FRONTOGENESIS WHICH SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR ASCENT...AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST ONE SEWD-TRACKING TSTM
COMPLEX...INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 FCST.

MCV LIKELY RESULTING FROM MORNING MCS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE ASCENT
DOWNSTREAM AS THE IMPULSE TRACKS SEWD IN 30-40KT NWLY FLOW. IN
FACT...NAM SUGGESTS THAT MCS/SHORT WAVE MAY PRODUCE MODEST HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF OK/MO/AR BY THURSDAY EVENING. STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX AS MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER IN ADVANCE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM WARMS AND
DESTABILIZES. THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE
ACROSS SERN KS/NERN OK...SEWD ACROSS AR AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
THREAT MAY SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY BY LATE IN THE DAY OR
OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...STRONG HEATING BENEATH STOUT CAP WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NWRN TX...ACROSS WRN OK...AND INTO
KS. MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR HEATING AND LIFT TO OVERCOME THE CAP
AND RESULT IN STORM INITIATION MAY BE ACROSS KS WHERE MCS OUTFLOW
WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED. POST-OUTFLOW/UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ERN CO WOULD ALSO AID EROSION OF THE CAP THIS REGION.
ANOTHER FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE. STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER ENHANCED BY EVENING
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS LARGE SCALE MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH.

ONCE STORMS FORM...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...FROM ERN CO
INTO KS...AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES INTO NWRN OK...WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SUPERCELLS. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW ACROSS HIGH PLAINS AND KS COULD
FURTHER SUPPORT HIGH SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION... AND A
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES NEAR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES...IN ADDITION TO VERY
LARGE HAIL. STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER
OVERNIGHT MCS TO EVOLVE FROM LATE EVENING ACTIVITY AND SPREAD SEWD
INTO OK THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREATS WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY. PARTS OF THE PLAINS MAY
REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES/MDT RISK IN LATER
OUTLOOKS AS STORM MODE AND EVOLUTION BECOME BETTER DEFINED

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE PERIOD
WITH SPEED MAX MOVING INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT. DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING
AND MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD
SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY AFTERNOON/EVENING...ESPECIALLY AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...AND ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD TRACK
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS CNTRL MT. FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A SEVERE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NRN/CNTRL MT.

..CARBIN.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.