[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 161703
SWODY2
SPC AC 161702

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 PM CDT THU JUN 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
MOT 30 SE P24 35 WNW MBG 30 NE PHP 50 SW PHP 40 SSW RAP 35 SSE 4BQ
25 W SHR 25 NNE WEY 25 W HLN 30 NNW CTB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
MHK 35 N JLN 65 WSW ARG 35 SSE LUL 25 WNW GPT 20 SSE LFT 30 NW BPT
25 ENE DAL 15 ESE CDS 65 WSW GAG 15 SW GCK 35 W RSL 25 SSW MHK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE NEL 10 NW ILG
30 ENE AOO 15 NNE DUJ 35 N JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW GLS 20 NE CLL
40 E ACT 20 SW MWL 25 NE ABI 40 N BGS 15 SW CVS 30 WNW RTN 20 SSW
LAR 25 ENE CPR 55 ESE WRL 15 S WRL 40 SSE BPI 10 S SLC 45 E U31 50 E
LOL 75 SSE BNO 60 NE 4LW 30 WNW 4LW 10 W ACV ...CONT... 65 N GFK 15
WNW ATY 30 SSW YKN LNK 10 WNW FNB 20 SSE SZL DYR 25 ENE LGC 35 E MCN
45 N SAV ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT TO WRN
DAKOTAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE PAC NW
COAST WITH STRONG BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM CA TO
MT.  DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WITH A
TROUGH IN THE EAST.  

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...
HEIGHTS WILL CONTIUE TO FALL ACROSS ID/MT ON FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW AT 41N 131W...ROTATES INLAND OVER NRN CA/NV
TO THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS ON DAY 2.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS A COLD MOVES EWD ACROSS MT.

MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE FROM DAY 1 /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S
TO 60S/ COMBINED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH OF MT EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF MID LEVEL TROUGH
SPREADING ACROSS NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL
SUPPORT THUNDESTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. 
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.

THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD TRACK INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
STRONGEST FORCING WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREADS INTO SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN.

PORTIONS OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER
PROBABILITIES AND MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.  HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT RISK...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
EFFECTS OF DAY 1 CONVECTION ON AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FOR DAY 2.

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY/GULF COAST STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS AND MCVS TRACKING SEWD WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME.  AT THE
SURFACE...PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NWRN TX
TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND SEWD TO THE SRN PORTIONS OF LA TO GA.

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS/OK IN THE FORM OF ONE OR MORE MCS'S. 
OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT AND
ITS PROGGED SWD MOVEMENT THIS PERIOD.  DOWNSTREAM SURFACE HEATING
FROM THE ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MORNING MCS AS IT TRACKS SSEWD TOWARD
LA/MS...WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

FURTHER WNW...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...BUT STRONG CAP MAY PRECLUDE INITIATION UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN THE UPSLOPE
REGION FROM ERN CO TO THE BLACKHILLS...GIVEN MOIST SSELY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP IN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS...THEN
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE LIKELY.  STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ SUGGESTS
POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR ONE OR MORE MCS'S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT.

..PETERS.. 06/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.