[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 150601
SWODY2
SPC AC 150600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT WED JUN 15 2005

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE
ISN 10 N BIS 35 WNW HON 35 WSW OFK 15 NNE MHK 30 SW JLN 25 ESE HOT
15 SSE MLU 20 WSW POE 30 SSW LFK 45 ENE ACT 30 WNW MWL 10 NNW LBB 10
NNW TCC 25 W TAD 4FC 40 N CPR 20 WSW SHR 25 NNW COD 30 NW WEY 50 SSW
3DU 45 NNW MSO 50 NNE FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 30 NNW ONM
50 NNE 4SL 45 SSW GUC 25 WSW GJT 35 SW PUC 55 W ELY 35 SSE BAM 10
NNE OWY 20 SSW BOI 65 SE BNO 65 NE SVE 15 SE RBL 40 NW UKI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT 55 WSW AXN
45 NNE SUX 50 WNW LWD 40 WSW JEF 20 SE POF 35 ENE TUP 15 SSE SEM MGR
45 NNE AYS 25 SE RDU 30 NNE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S HOU 25 WSW CLL
20 SSW BWD 30 SSE BGS 40 SSW MAF 75 S MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW MSS 30 ESE UCA
35 NNE CXY 25 WNW MRB 20 NNW BLF 50 ENE LEX 15 SSW DAY 25 SW TOL 10
SSE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

SEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE WA/ORE COAST LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS SPEED MAX MOVES INLAND ACROSS NRN CA INTO NWRN NV. 
ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. INTO WRN MT AFTER 00Z...ALONG WITH
INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT.  PRIOR TO THE INFLUENCES OF THIS UPPER
TROUGH...SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY WITH A DECIDEDLY ELY COMPONENT AT LOW
LEVELS.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN MOIST UPSLOPE COMPONENT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WRN MT WHERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL BY EARLY EVENING. 
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND THIS
IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS UPDRAFTS ORGANIZE AND MOVE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE WRN PLAINS OF MT.  ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY LATE...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT FORCING/SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO MAINTAIN A SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A POTENTIAL MCS EVOLVES OVER NRN/CNTRL MT.  EWD EXTENT WILL BE
MODULATED BY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/PROPAGATIONAL COMPONENT
INTO DEVELOPING LLJ ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.


...CENTRAL PLAINS/ARKLATEX...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR EPISODIC MCS/S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS FROM LATE DAY1 INTO THE DAY2
PERIOD.  LATEST THINKING IS AN MCS WILL BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF
OK EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY TURN SEWD
TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY MID DAY AS SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT VEERED LLJ IS
DIRECTED TOWARD SERN OK/NERN TX.  IN ADDITION...INTENSIFICATION
ALONG LEADING EDGE OF TSTM COMPLEX MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS.  GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TOPPED THE UPPER
RIDGE...MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT...ROUGHLY 35KT AT 6KM...COULD EASILY
ALLOW REMNANTS OF MCS TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...AND
POSSIBLY OFF THE LA COAST DURING THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG HEATING ACROSS NWRN TX SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR AOA 100F AS WLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
ALLOWS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP ACROSS NM AND SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM.  IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR PARCELS TO
REACH THEIR LFC WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NEAR/WEST OF CONVECTIVELY-REINFORCED SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX.  STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS CONVECTION GIVEN CLOUD BASES WILL BE NEAR 10K FT AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE ABOVE ONE INCH.  WITH
TIME...STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW ANOTHER OVERNIGHT MCS
TO EVOLVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WITH LATE NIGHT ACTIVITY.

FARTHER NORTH...ELY LOW LEVEL COMPONENT BENEATH WEAK UPPER RIDGING
WILL HOLD ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION FROM WRN KS INTO THE
BLACK HILLS REGION.  ALTHOUGH NOT STRONGLY FORCED...ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

..DARROW.. 06/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.