[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 141734
SWODY2
SPC AC 141733

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE
4CR 50 SW COS 10 NNW FCL 30 NNE SNY 30 ESE LBF 40 NNW CNK 20 NNE MHK
30 S TOP 30 NW JLN 35 SW JLN TUL 35 ESE END 30 WSW END 40 S GAG 60
NNW CDS 35 W CDS 10 SW LBB 55 N HOB 55 NE 4CR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
PBG 10 S MPV 10 SW EEN 25 NNE BDR 25 W BDR 40 NE ABE 25 SSE AVP 30
NNW IPT 30 ENE BFD 30 NNE BUF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
ISN 30 NE MLS 30 E BIL 35 NE WEY 25 SSW DLN 50 N 27U 30 NNW HLN 30
NW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FHU 15 NNW SOW
65 S 4BL U17 20 NW CDC 70 NE TPH 20 SSW BAM 30 ENE BKE 25 NE PUW 60
NW FCA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE MOT 45 WNW JMS
25 E MBG 20 NE PIR 25 WSW 9V9 40 ENE ANW 30 W OMA 45 W LWD 55 NNE
SZL 30 WSW JEF 15 WSW TBN 35 ENE HRO 30 E MLC 35 NNW ADM 25 ENE SPS
45 N MWL 15 SE FTW 30 SSW SHV 25 WSW JAN 15 WNW ANB 15 NNW AHN 15 E
SPA 30 NNW SOP 30 SW RIC 35 SE CHO 20 S SHD 20 NNE PSK 25 ESE 5I3 20
WNW JKL 20 NE SDF 15 SE HUF 25 NE MTO 30 NNW DNV 30 SSE CGX 15 S MKG
30 SSE HTL 15 SE APN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND
PARTS OF KS/NRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MT...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE EAST FROM GREAT LAKES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR LIFT SPREADING ACROSS 
NY AND NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM... CURRENTLY
MOVING TOWARD NRN ONTARIO...WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION.

LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE GRADUALLY EAST FROM THE
ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. UPSTREAM FROM THE
RIDGE...A BROAD SWATH OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WRN
U.S. A STRONG IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN FASTER NRN STREAM FLOW WILL
LIKELY SWEEP NEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN DURING THE PERIOD. PACIFIC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL PROGRESS EAST FROM WRN/CNTRL MT
DURING THE DAY. A MORE SUBTLE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE IS FCST TO
CROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION EARLY...THEN CREST THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ERN CO/NM DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

...NERN U.S...
AS CYCLONE SHIFTS EWD FROM ERN GREAT LAKES...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
WILL MOVE ACROSS NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. JUXTAPOSITION OF
STRONGEST AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND SHEAR AND FORCING WILL OCCUR
OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY/ERN NY AREA BY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY APPEARS
LIMITED EAST OF THIS AREA PERHAPS DUE TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.
BROAD ZONE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING SHOULD PROVE
ADEQUATE FOR MID DAY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IN ERN NY WHERE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION. A FEW VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS FORMING AHEAD OF OR ALONG THE
FRONT SHOULD PROVE CAPABLE OF GENERATING DAMAGING WINDS...AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL BEFORE ACTIVITY MOVES EAST INTO MORE STABLE
REGIME.

...HIGH PLAINS EAST ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK LATE...
LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW/MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STRONG HEATING
BENEATH BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL LEAD TO AN
AXIS OF VERY STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS BY
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION AND
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE ACROSS THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE AS INHIBITION IS OVERCOME BY
HEATING THESE AREAS. CAP EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE QUITE STRONG
BUT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...COUPLED
WITH MAGNITUDE OF SFC HEATING EXPECTED...WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP...FROM NERN CO SEWD ACROSS NWRN KS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE SOUTH ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM SERN CO/SERN KS TO THE
NM/TX BORDER AREA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS CO/KS WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL. SHEAR BECOMES MORE MARGINAL WITH SWD EXTENT BUT STORMS
NEAR THE DRYLINE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED HAIL
AND WIND EVENTS.

LARGE SCALE PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEVERE MCS ACROSS KS...AND PERHAPS INTO PARTS OF NRN OK...OVERNIGHT
AS EVENING CONVECTION MERGES AND IS SUSTAINED BY LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AND LIFT ON THE NOSE OF NOCTURNAL LLJ.

...MT...
MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 50-60KT WILL SPREAD NEWD ACROSS WRN MT INTO
SWRN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. FORCING WITH THE IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL COINCIDE WITH MAX HEATING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IF ACTIVITY CAN SPREAD INTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WHERE MOIST INFLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
GREATER...CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE.
DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE HIGH BASED IN NATURE...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN.. 06/14/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.