[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 131738
SWODY2
SPC AC 131737

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
ART 15 S ITH 15 NNE HGR 20 SW SSU HSS 35 N BHM 20 S UOX 25 W MEM 20
WSW HOP 30 SSW BMG 40 NNE LAF 40 NNW CGX 20 SSE LNR 25 SSW VOK 20
WSW CWA 40 ESE RHI 25 SE MQT 25 WNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD
...CONT... 35 SE ELP ABQ 40 SSE GUC 20 WNW COS 40 SE LIC 40 NNW EHA
65 S LBL 30 WNW CSM 55 WNW MLC 10 WSW UNO 50 ESE VIH 35 SE UIN 20 W
UIN 15 W IRK 30 W P35 45 NNE FNB 15 NNE OFK 20 NNW MHE 35 N HON 55
ENE ABR 30 E FAR 35 ESE INL ...CONT... 60 NNE GGW 85 WNW MLS 35 WSW
BIL 10 NNW JAC 20 WNW SLC 35 NW ELY 15 SW U31 35 ESE SVE 30 ESE RBL
45 WSW MHS 40 ESE EUG AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
OH VLY TO THE TN VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST ACROSS MN AND OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION DURING TUESDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
LWR/ERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY. ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WIND MAX OF 50
KT WILL TRANSITION EWD ACROSS IND/OH DURING TIME OF MAXIMUM
DESTABILIZATION. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT SHOULD ORIGINATE FROM GREAT
LAKES CYCLONE OVER LAKE MI AND ARC SEWD THROUGH LWR MI/IND...AND
THEN EXTEND SSWWD TO THE LWR OH VLY. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT AS IT SPREADS EWD
ACROSS ERN IND... OH/KY... AND THEN TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS BY
EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PERHAPS
ENHANCED BY MCS OUTFLOW....WILL DEVELOP INTO WEST/SW TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

REMAINS OF TROPICAL LOW ARLENE ARE FCST TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS
NY/NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH WARM AND VERY MOIST AIR FUELING
TSTM CLUSTERS POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE SMALL SCALE LOW.

WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH A BAND OF STRONG SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
MOVING FROM ERN WA/ORE EWD ACROSS ID AND WRN MT.

...GREAT LAKES/UPR OH VLY...
SFC-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INITIATE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION AND WITHIN DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE UPR MIDWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. 
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD
WRN PA DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE
INTO MULTI-CLUSTER LINE SEGMENTS.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND...
FOCUSED AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A
SMALL SFC LOW MOVING SEWD FROM ERN NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON. 40KT NWLY
MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
PRODUCE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF INTENSE
ORGANIZED STORMS. MESOSCALE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE QUITE STRONG
ALONG NW-SE ORIENTED WARM/MARINE FRONT FROM SRN NH INTO ERN MA/RI.
CELLS TRACKING ALONG THIS POTENTIAL BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A GREATER
CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE. AREAL EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT  APPEARS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A SMALL SLGT RISK MAY BE INTRODUCED
IN A LATER OUTLOOK AS MESOSCALE FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

...SW TX...
THIS AREA MAY ALSO REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES AS
FRONTAL SURGE LOCATION BECOMES BETTER FCST IN LATER GUIDANCE. FRONT
WILL SPREAD SWWD INTO STRONGLY CAPPED BUT INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE RIDGING IS FCST TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA...THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FORCING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...COMBINED WITH INTENSE SFC HEATING...FOR STORMS TO
INITIATE. A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER DIRECTIONAL SHEAR DUE TO LOW
LEVEL NELY FLOW TOPPED BY GENERALLY WEAK WLY/NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
COULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN ROCKIES...
A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR HIGH
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY PACIFIC FRONT AS IT SPREADS INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AROUND THE TIME OF MAX HEATING.

..CARBIN.. 06/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.