[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 130603
SWODY2
SPC AC 130602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2005

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
ROC 20 SSW ELM 15 NNE HGR 25 NNW SSU 30 NW HSS 25 ENE HSV 35 NNW MLU
30 WNW HOT 40 NE JBR 50 WSW EVV 20 NW BMG 45 SW SBN 25 N CGX 10 NW
JVL 20 SSE LSE 20 WNW EAU 60 WSW IWD 25 WSW CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE ELP ABQ 40 SSE
GUC 20 WNW COS 40 SE LIC 40 NNW EHA 55 NNE AMA 35 WSW CSM 55 E OKC
25 SSW HRO 30 NW POF 20 ESE SPI 35 NNW PIA 25 SSW ALO 30 ESE SPW 50
SSW AXN 25 W BJI 45 WNW INL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CRP LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW 85 WNW MLS
35 WSW BIL 10 NNW JAC 10 W OGD 55 SE EKO 25 NW WMC 35 ESE SVE 30 ESE
RBL 45 WSW MHS 40 ESE EUG AST.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES...ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY...SWWD INTO ERN AR...

...SYNOPSIS...

00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW EWD PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW
ACROSS MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  EVEN
SO...NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY AS UPPER SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 50
KT...TRANSITIONS SEWD ACROSS IND/OH.  AT THE SFC...MID DAY FRONTAL
POSITION SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL WI...ARCING SEWD ACROSS WRN IND
INTO WRN TN.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR EARLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE DAY1
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION
OVERTURNING INSTABILITY...REMNANTS OF ARLENE ALLOWED TROPICAL
AIRMASS TO SPREAD NWD INTO THE OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
WITH SFC DEW POINTS NEAR 70F.  SUFFICIENT WLY FLOW ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM RAPIDLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ENABLING SFC BASED CONVECTION TO INITIATE AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN
ADEQUATE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER/LOW
LCL HEIGHTS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT SUGGEST
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS ACTIVITY 
SHOULD ORGANIZE AND SPREAD EWD TOWARD WRN PA DURING THE EVENING
HOURS WHERE SCT-NUMEROUS TSTMS MAY EVOLVE INTO MULTI-CLUSTER LINE
SEGMENTS.

FARTHER SOUTH...TRAILING FRONTAL ZONE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL
CERTAINLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON.  THIS PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK WILL INITIATE A BIT LATER
DUE TO MORE CAPPING AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT.  HOWEVER...MUCH WARMER
SFC TEMPERATURES WILL EXTEND FROM NERN TX INTO THIS REGION YIELDING
SBCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FLOW DROPS OFF
CONSIDERABLY INTO THE ARKLATEX...AND WWD INTO NCNTRL TX...ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS MAY EVOLVE DUE TO THE MORE INTENSE INSTABILITY.  THIS
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..DARROW.. 06/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.