[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 121735
SWODY2
SPC AC 121734

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
MKE 25 NNE FWA 30 NNW DAY LUK 25 S SDF 35 W HOP 25 SSW ARG 15 WNW
HOT 40 S PRX 20 E DAL 35 N FTW 40 WSW ADM 35 NE OKC 20 SW EMP 40 S
BIE 30 ENE GRI 50 NNE BUB 15 ESE 9V9 35 W ATY 25 S AXN 45 NE MSP 20
W CWA 35 NE MKE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 10 SSW MAF
25 SSW CDS 55 E AMA 15 E DHT 40 NW TAD 15 ENE ASE 15 SSE RKS 25 SW
JAC 35 E 27U 25 WSW MSO 50 ENE 63S ...CONT... 35 WSW 7R4 35 NNW ESF
20 SSW SHV 45 WNW LFK 40 SSE AUS 10 WNW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY MONDAY THEN
CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MS VALLEY...REACHING THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW SHOULD
OCCLUDE OVER NEB EARLY MONDAY THEN MIGRATE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY. ACCOMPANYING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW SWWD
THROUGH NEB...KS AND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE MONDAY MORNING. THE
DRYLINE WILL EXTEND THROUGH W TX NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE
IT WILL INTERSECT THE COLD FRONT. NRN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE MS VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE THE SRN
PORTION CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH OK...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY STALL OVER
THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HELP
MAINTAIN CONVECTION FROM DAY 1 INTO MONDAY MORNING FROM ERN KS
THROUGH PART OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEYS. THIS PRESENTS THE
GREATEST UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT THE EARLY STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. WITH UPPER
FLOW ORIENTED GENERALLY FROM S TO N AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH...MUCH OF
THE ANVIL DEBRIS SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD THE N SIDE OF THE MCS. THIS
SUGGESTS SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR TO THE S AND E OF THIS ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN MO INTO SRN IL WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WITHIN THE ONGOING MCS MAY INITIALLY
BE ELEVATED...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SURFACED DEVELOPMENT SHOULD INCREASE
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS
LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

DESTABILIZATION WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN WAKE OF EARLY ACTIVITY
FARTHER W FROM PARTS OF ERN KS OR WRN MO SWD INTO ERN OK AND NRN TX.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AS IT CONTINUES SEWD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINE
SEGMENTS.

FARTHER NWD NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION FROM ERN NEB...SERN
SD INTO WRN IA...DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR AS DRY SLOT SPREADS NEWD
AND INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING. STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR
TRIPLE POINT AND SWD ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY FROM SERN SD INTO
ERN NEB AND SPREAD EWD. COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEARER THE UPPER LOW WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WIND MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS. THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
MAY EXIST NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM
SERN SD...NRN IA INTO SRN MN...ESPECIALLY IF SURFACE LOW IS STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

..DIAL.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.