[SWODY2] SWODY2

[SWODY2 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120601

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MTW 30
WNW AZO 15 WNW MIE 30 NE OWB 20 NNW MKL 20 NNE PBF 30 SE DUA 25 SSE
OKC 15 W EMP 20 NNW BIE 40 NE ANW 35 N 9V9 10 S ABR 55 W AXN 60 SSW
DLH 30 NE AUW MTW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW P07 10 SSW MAF
25 SSW CDS 55 E AMA 15 E DHT 40 NW TAD 15 ENE ASE 15 SSE RKS 20 W
JAC 15 E DLN 55 SW 3DU 55 NE BKE 30 ENE 4LW 25 WSW LMT 45 SE EUG 25
E PDX 45 WNW EAT 50 NW 4OM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 35 NNW ESF
10 W SHV 65 SSW TYR 40 SSE AUS 10 WNW LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN SD/MN...SWD ACROSS
IA/MO/IL INTO ERN OK/AR...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING IN REGARDS TO
SPEED/MOVEMENT OF UPPER LOW AS IT EVOLVES OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...THEN LIFTS NEWD INTO SWRN MN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  CENTRAL
CO SPEED MAX SHOULD ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
SWRN IA BY PEAK HEATING.  THIS PLACES FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE
TO EXIT REGION ACROSS NWRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK...BENEATH ERN
PORTIONS OF OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  FARTHER SOUTHEAST...COLD
FRONT SHOULD SURGE EWD ACROSS KS INTO WRN MO BY 14/00Z ALONG SRN
EDGE OF STRONGER MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW.

STRONG FORCING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LATE DAY1
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY REGION.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
POST MCS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BENEATH ERN PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER LOW INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA...WITH ANOTHER STRONG
ZONE OF HEATING EXPECTED AHEAD OF ARCING FRONT FROM OK INTO SWRN MO.
 COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS
SD/MN/IA SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL REINTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW ALONG
OCCLUDING PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE.  SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.

STRONGER ZONE OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MAIN WARM SECTOR FROM NERN OK INTO SERN IA/WCNTRL IL WHERE SBCAPE
VALUES SHOULD EASILY EXCEED 3000 J/KG. THIS AXIS OF INTENSIFYING
BUOYANCY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT. IF
DAY1 CONVECTION DOES NOT CONTAMINATE THIS ENVIRONMENT IT APPEARS
SIGNIFICANT ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR WITHIN A
POTENTIALLY STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY IF SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES AS FORECAST.

..DARROW.. 06/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.